From tightening physical supply to rising industrial demand and growing stress at the COMEX, the forces behind silver are quietly aligning. Understanding these shifts before the crowd does may prove c
Excellent piece on the COMEX mechanics. You have perfectly documented the symptoms of the paper market collapse (the 350:1 paper-to-physical ratio, the 8% lease rates, the structural backwardation).
However, we need to upgrade the core thesis. The "Fat Pitch" isn't coming because silver is an "anti-fiat monetary metal." The Fat Pitch is here because silver has undergone a phase transition: it is no longer a store of value; it is an industrial fuel.
As I outlined in my recent framework, "From Precious Metal to Industrial Metal":
We must stop looking at silver through the lens of interest rates and gold, and start looking at the marginal cost of physical atoms. In the R.I.C.E. system (the operating system of Chinese manufacturing), silver is the "conductive oxygen" inside TOPCon and HJT solar cells.
Your observation that 70% of silver is a byproduct perfectly validates my "Double Inelasticity" thesis: supply is vertically inelastic (you can't mine more silver just for silver), and demand is chemically non-negotiable in the industrial east.
The COMEX isn't breaking because "inflation is rising." The COMEX is breaking because the Thermodynamic Value (Price = Marginal Cost x Scarcity Multiple) of these physical atoms has structurally shifted to the $72 - $104/oz range. This is driven by the irreversible entropy of ore grades, with the base marginal cost already hitting $22 - $25/oz.
You are right to buy physical silver. But don't buy it as a hedge against the Fed. Buy it because it is the mathematically derived, underpriced industrial constant of the 21st century.
Why silver often falls first in a crisis — and then rises the fastest
At the beginning of wars or major global shocks, markets usually react with panic. Investors sell almost everything to raise cash, and even assets like silver can drop sharply for a short time.
We saw this during the COVID crash in 2020. Silver initially fell as markets panicked, but once massive stimulus and money printing began, it surged within a few months.
If a conflict lasts longer, energy prices rise, inflation increases, and governments respond with more spending and monetary expansion. That’s when capital often begins moving into hard assets like precious metals.
Silver is a small and volatile market, which means it can move very quickly once sentiment changes.
Volatility is part of the journey. Sharp drops, sudden rallies, and big swings are normal.
I’m used to it. I’m not selling.
This is just a shortened version. If you're interested in a deeper analysis of the silver market and the broader context, you can find it on my Substack:
Few understand that #Silver is the new oil. A tsunami of #silver demand is coming from countries that need a backup plan for their energy needs. 1/3 of the planets oil and gas refineries have been destroyed with bombs during the Iran war. This will take 10+ years to repair and bring back online (assuming no more oil and gas refineries are bombed). Demand for renewable energy is about to dramatically increase as of today, planet wide. All of it requires silver, alot of silver!
Trump just made this a new reality.
You may not understand silver fully, yet. But you will eventually because silver is money and it’s also a metal used in industry. Every piece of electronics requires silver. The first form of money was silver, even before gold. Did you know that Jesus was betrayed by Judus for 30 ounces of silver? Not gold, but silver.
Did you know that the United States constitution states that our money should be gold and silver and nothing more? But it’s not. A quarter (.25 cent quarter) from before 1965 was 90% silver and today is worth $15. But today they make quarters out of cheap metals which barely have no metal value. Our money has been debased and the government just keeps printing more of it.
The United States is about to go into more debt and money printing. It’s time you own some silver and gold. I’ve been trading silver for decades and I’ve made alot of money doing it. I don’t work, I’m retired, I trade silver because I’m really good at it and I get bored so it gives me something to do. I live in a really big house, some call it a mansion, on a golf course with incredible views. The first floor of my home is like a lobby of a 5 star tropical hotel resort. I live in paradise , I go to the gym, and I trade silver on my phone all day and I enjoy working in my backyard orchard with dozens of different fruit trees. I don’t do much else. My life is great but I feel like I need to give back. The only skillset I have is my knowledge of trading silver and sharing silver related content.
I was encouraged to start a channel so I can share my knowledge with others.
My name is SilverDaddy. Follow my channel for everything silver. We’re at 14,000+ followers and growing. I started this channel 3 months ago just for fun. Come join our silver family. You’ll learn stuff and you’ll make money while you learn.
Excellent piece on the COMEX mechanics. You have perfectly documented the symptoms of the paper market collapse (the 350:1 paper-to-physical ratio, the 8% lease rates, the structural backwardation).
However, we need to upgrade the core thesis. The "Fat Pitch" isn't coming because silver is an "anti-fiat monetary metal." The Fat Pitch is here because silver has undergone a phase transition: it is no longer a store of value; it is an industrial fuel.
As I outlined in my recent framework, "From Precious Metal to Industrial Metal":
We must stop looking at silver through the lens of interest rates and gold, and start looking at the marginal cost of physical atoms. In the R.I.C.E. system (the operating system of Chinese manufacturing), silver is the "conductive oxygen" inside TOPCon and HJT solar cells.
https://chinarbitrageur.substack.com/p/from-precious-metal-to-industrial?r=71ctq6
Your observation that 70% of silver is a byproduct perfectly validates my "Double Inelasticity" thesis: supply is vertically inelastic (you can't mine more silver just for silver), and demand is chemically non-negotiable in the industrial east.
The COMEX isn't breaking because "inflation is rising." The COMEX is breaking because the Thermodynamic Value (Price = Marginal Cost x Scarcity Multiple) of these physical atoms has structurally shifted to the $72 - $104/oz range. This is driven by the irreversible entropy of ore grades, with the base marginal cost already hitting $22 - $25/oz.
You are right to buy physical silver. But don't buy it as a hedge against the Fed. Buy it because it is the mathematically derived, underpriced industrial constant of the 21st century.
Why silver often falls first in a crisis — and then rises the fastest
At the beginning of wars or major global shocks, markets usually react with panic. Investors sell almost everything to raise cash, and even assets like silver can drop sharply for a short time.
We saw this during the COVID crash in 2020. Silver initially fell as markets panicked, but once massive stimulus and money printing began, it surged within a few months.
If a conflict lasts longer, energy prices rise, inflation increases, and governments respond with more spending and monetary expansion. That’s when capital often begins moving into hard assets like precious metals.
Silver is a small and volatile market, which means it can move very quickly once sentiment changes.
Volatility is part of the journey. Sharp drops, sudden rallies, and big swings are normal.
I’m used to it. I’m not selling.
This is just a shortened version. If you're interested in a deeper analysis of the silver market and the broader context, you can find it on my Substack:
https://silverdominion.substack.com
It was the 1919 World Series that was fixed… not the 1921 Series!!
Few understand that #Silver is the new oil. A tsunami of #silver demand is coming from countries that need a backup plan for their energy needs. 1/3 of the planets oil and gas refineries have been destroyed with bombs during the Iran war. This will take 10+ years to repair and bring back online (assuming no more oil and gas refineries are bombed). Demand for renewable energy is about to dramatically increase as of today, planet wide. All of it requires silver, alot of silver!
Trump just made this a new reality.
You may not understand silver fully, yet. But you will eventually because silver is money and it’s also a metal used in industry. Every piece of electronics requires silver. The first form of money was silver, even before gold. Did you know that Jesus was betrayed by Judus for 30 ounces of silver? Not gold, but silver.
Did you know that the United States constitution states that our money should be gold and silver and nothing more? But it’s not. A quarter (.25 cent quarter) from before 1965 was 90% silver and today is worth $15. But today they make quarters out of cheap metals which barely have no metal value. Our money has been debased and the government just keeps printing more of it.
The United States is about to go into more debt and money printing. It’s time you own some silver and gold. I’ve been trading silver for decades and I’ve made alot of money doing it. I don’t work, I’m retired, I trade silver because I’m really good at it and I get bored so it gives me something to do. I live in a really big house, some call it a mansion, on a golf course with incredible views. The first floor of my home is like a lobby of a 5 star tropical hotel resort. I live in paradise , I go to the gym, and I trade silver on my phone all day and I enjoy working in my backyard orchard with dozens of different fruit trees. I don’t do much else. My life is great but I feel like I need to give back. The only skillset I have is my knowledge of trading silver and sharing silver related content.
I was encouraged to start a channel so I can share my knowledge with others.
My name is SilverDaddy. Follow my channel for everything silver. We’re at 14,000+ followers and growing. I started this channel 3 months ago just for fun. Come join our silver family. You’ll learn stuff and you’ll make money while you learn.
-SilverDaddy
Calabasas, CA USA
Facebook Group: THE SILVER FORUM
Instagram: RealSilverDaddy
TikTok: RealSilverDaddy
X: RealSilverDaddy
SilverDaddy News Network (SNN)
Global Silver News 24/7
Great article, the latest COT report certainly supports your premise - gold and silver has more room to go.
This is off topic but it affects us all. It’s the best summary of what’s happened in the Iran war and Trump admin so far. It’s worth reading.
https://m.facebook.com/groups/2103904343785161/permalink/2173601970148731/?mibextid=wwXIfr
Just a small side note, it was the 1919 Chicago White Sox also known as the Black Sox that cheated in the World Series against Cincinnati.