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Mar 14, 2025
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Matthew Piepenburg's avatar

Despite the clowns running the circus, I still feel war can be averted. If not, a land war expansion in the east would be devastating economcally--disrupting energy flows and spiriling in unpredicable directions for the EU. Ironically, a "war economy" can be bullish for certain obvious sectors; markets in prior wars--proxy or direct--have often risen rather than fallen during peak conflict. Given the already inflated/narrow nature of US markets, a war in Europe--however unthinkable--would/could make US markets a safer haven--but it will depend on the US role in such a war. Debt levels would spike, the USD would be debased yet simultaneously favored on the DXY and gold would continue its secular rise.