Pattern Recognition

My father taught me long ago that the years teach things the days do not always notice.

In all areas of our lives, we slowly acquire perspectives earned by experience over theory and by time rather than guesses.

This is equally true of lives spent investing in markets and cycles. A certain pattern recognition is acquired that not even a Bloomberg terminal or AI robot can teach.

As one, for example, who traded through a dot.com bubble led by the undeniably transformative technology of the internet of all things, I remember well how everyone from Wall Street experts to Hollywood movies made it clear that names like Cisco, Yahoo and AOL were kings who would never be dethroned.

That felt very exciting.

At least until the NASDAQ lost 78% and two of those “kings” were carried off the market on their shields, while Cisco, which at least survived the carnage, would never be the same again.

Those days and years are now teaching us yet another lesson, one whose pattern few wish to see, for the simple reason that many are not, or never were, paying attention.

And as for such patterns or lessons, what very few are seeing today is that Japan’s JGB, yen and Nikkei have just given us a familiar road map for what lies ahead for America’s Fed, dollar and S&P.

I Think We’re Turning Japanese (Yes, I Really Think So)

What is happening this year in Japan goes well beyond the otherwise significant conversations on the Japanese “Carry Trade.”

As bond jocks constantly remind us of boring things like sovereign debt yields, it can often be too boring (or too scary) to confront.

Like the sun, topics like death and bond markets are often hard to look at directly.

The fact, for example, that the yield on the Japanese 30Y JGB just hit over 4.18% for the first time in its history may seem like a yawn to many otherwise doom-scrolling through the latest war, AI meme or DC scandal de jour.

But this historical yield spike out of Tokyo is far more than just another bond signal—it’s a harbinger of things to come in your own backyard (and wallet).

The Canary in a Coal Mine

Much like the USA, today’s Japan (which is the world’s 3^rd largest economy) is a paper tiger built on extraordinary debt (greater than 200% of its total economy) and a bond and hence stock market entirely supported by (and correlated to) a central bank fatally addicted to printing (debasing) trillions worth of its currency to keep its illusion of economic survival going.

If this profile looks a lot like America’s and Europe’s, that’s because Japan is just a canary in the Western coal mine. Where it goes, we shall follow.

In fact, Japan’s sins are in many ways our own, especially America’s.

Blame It on the Experts

Just after the Nikkei literally died in 1989, a then-ambitious and much younger Ben Bernanke gave Tokyo a handbook to print their way out of collapse.

Bernanke would use a similar handbook when U.S. markets tanked years later in 2008. As we are now discovering, his expertise was anything but expert.

But during this period of mass MMT delusion and massive currency debasement, Wall Street was betting for years (decades) that Japan’s debt levels would eventually implode under inevitably rising bond yields (and hence debt costs).

For literally decades, Wall Street mavericks were betting big on a yield spike that would re-crush the Nikkei and JGB in one big headline.

But this headline never came, and the foregoing bet against Japan became known on the Street as the “widow maker.”

Buying Time, Postponing Pain

Instead, the BoJ bought itself decades of time and a market recovery by printing just unthinkable levels of yen to keep JGBs (Japanese bonds) bought and the Nikkei higher.

For the near entirety of my career, this kept Japanese yields at zero to negative, buying time while crushing those who bet against Tokyo.

Which brings me back to that boring 4.18% record yield on the 30Y JGB.

This figure confirms that the dam has finally broken on the broken Japanese “plan.”

Or to use the analogy above, the canary in its coal mine just died.

For those paying attention, these rising yields just caused the Nikkei 225 to lose 200B in a single day, and this sell-off was led by the so-called “Immortal” tech kings, you know, the kind which were never supposed to fall—like AOL, Yahoo or Cisco of old.

The Sickness is Global and Currency-Killing

But what happens in Tokyo doesn’t stay in Tokyo.

Yields across the “developed” world have been rising to decade highs because the bond markets are now showing more honesty than central bankers, from Tokyo to DC.

As the yield on the Bloomberg Global Sovereign Bond Index shoots past 3.72%, yields from Australia and the UK to Germany and the USA are skyrocketing to untenable levels.

The bond market is essentially asking for more risk premium (yield) on government IOUs that are no longer trusted.

Given this global debt fiasco, is it therefore any surprise that the global broad money supply of printed paper currencies, which hit $150 TRILLION in June, has increased by a staggering 50% since 2020?

Such open currency debasement now hiding in plain sight not only explains why currencies like the USD have lost 87% in absolute purchasing power since decoupling from gold in 1971, it further explains why the world’s central banks are stacking gold at an unprecedented pace in 2026.

Physical gold is no longer an allocation or dollar “debate”; it is the open and now obvious puck direction of global collateral and the de facto international reserve asset above tanking currencies and unloved sovereign IOUs.

This is not fable but fact.

Stocks vs. Gold

But equally worth noting from the Japanese tech sell-off of late is what it reminds as to the dot.com era of yesterday and what it portends for the AI era/market of tomorrow.

Unlike the aforementioned bloodbath during the internet bubble, today’s U.S. stock market is literally being kept alive by an equally game-changing technology meme with an even greater profile of over-investment ($400B this year alone by the leading tech names), which always moves from over-bought to over-sold.

With U.S. public debt crossing 40T as rates rise to levels costing Uncle Sam (i.e. you) over $3B/day to service the interest expense, the convergence of a credit crisis is about to slam into a dying PE market, an already dead private credit market and an over-valued and over-hyped AI sector.

This suggests that what we just got a glimpse of in Japan (as to both its markets and currency) is an undeniable warning of what is to come to the U.S. NASDAQ and dollar.

Be Prepared

Timing this convergence is a mug’s game. Preparing for it is not.

Even if central banks like the Fed or BoJ “save” the markets with mouse-clicked trillions, the currency destruction necessary to support those “resilient” markets is robbing you in plain sight.

The Nikkei, for example, has seen an impressive 145% gain in the last five years, yet when measured in gold terms, the result was a net loss of -31%.

During that same period, the NASDAQ 100 has shown an impressive nominal return of 95%, yet when measured in gold, the net result has been a loss of -23%.

And if any of you were being told by your advisors over the last 12 years that USTs were the key to your safe retirement, the “risk-free returns” of Uncle Sam’s IOU, when measured against gold, have lost you 90%.

See the theft? See the real measure of wealth?

Given the foregoing interplay of rising rates, tanking bonds, debased currencies and hyper-risk in the tech sector, an allocation to physical rather than paper gold is the only asset separating the informed from the uninformed, and the wealth-protected from the wealth-destroyed.

• Currencies are stable

• Inflation is low

• Governments are running budget surpluses

• Borrowing is around 25% to 30% of GDP

• Countries have little debt

Fiat money will be the better choice in that case… but we all know that’s not the world today.

Most countries now have debt above 100% of GDP. Stock markets, bond markets and property have also been supported for years by low interest rates, heavy borrowing and high leverage.

Stocks are now around 250% of GDP, which is an absolute record in the measure used here.

The Buffett Indicator puts the current valuation into a longer historical context. The ratio of total publicly traded stocks to GDP is now around three times its 50-year mean.

That leaves very little room for stocks to absorb a major change in financial conditions.

Corporate and sovereign borrowers are facing the same problem.

“Bonds are a total bubble with borrowers that will never repay their money.”

Global debt is estimated at around $370 trillion, before derivatives and the shadow banking system are taken into account. The derivatives market is estimated at around $2 quadrillion.

The same forces have pushed property prices higher. Low rates, high borrowing and leverage have inflated property markets, leaving them vulnerable when financial conditions change.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield also shows how the long period of falling yields came to an end in 2020.

This matters because the period of easy money that supported stocks, bonds and property cannot simply continue indefinitely.

The question then becomes “What happens when those markets fall?”

Since 1971, when Nixon closed the gold window, gold has risen from $35 an ounce to around $4,470 in the figures used here. That is 127 times higher. Over the same period, the Dow has risen 57 times, before dividends.

The Dow-to-gold ratio gives a different picture of the stock market than the dollar price alone.

If conventional assets fall substantially against gold, the ratio could move back toward levels seen in earlier periods. The chart points to a potential return toward 1:1.

Gold itself has also gone through corrections. The recent correction is viewed as having ended, with the chart pointing toward much higher potential prices from here.

The point is not that gold will simply rise because its dollar price is going up.

If the dollar and other currencies lose purchasing power, the dollar price of gold can rise dramatically while the actual purchasing power of gold remains much more stable.

That is why giving one precise long-term dollar target for gold misses the main issue.

“It’s no use giving a dollar price for gold when the dollar is going down by the day.”

The same argument applies to silver. Gold has risen 131 times since 1971, while silver has risen only 55 times in the figures shown below. That leaves a large difference between the two metals.

Silver is expected to move faster than gold if the monetary and inflationary conditions described here develop.

The conclusion is therefore quite simple.

Gold is not needed when currencies are sound, inflation is contained, and governments have their finances under control.

But waiting for those conditions before owning gold could mean waiting for a world that is unlikely to return soon.

The purpose of physical gold and silver is to preserve purchasing power when the financial system is under strain. That is why they remain relevant when stocks, bonds, property, and currencies are all exposed to the same debt problem.

KEY INSIGHTS

00:00 – 01:26 | Stocks and bonds face a reckoning

Stocks at 250% of GDP and heavily indebted bond markets are seen as highly vulnerable.

01:27 – 02:14 | Property joins the list of risks

Low rates, borrowing and leverage have pushed property prices higher, with major declines expected against gold.

02:15 – 03:01 | Gold outperforms over the long term

Gold has risen 127 times since 1971, compared with 57 times for the Dow before dividends.

03:09 – 04:31 | Wars threaten energy and markets

The conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East could keep energy prices high and put further pressure on the global economy.

04:32 – 05:35 | Gold and silver for wealth preservation

Physical gold and silver are presented as the preferred assets during an inflationary period with high debt and interest rates.

05:36 – 06:44 | Gold protects purchasing power

Gold’s rising dollar price reflects currency weakness, while its real purchasing power has remained stable over long periods.

06:45 – 08:45 | When should you not own gold?

Gold is unnecessary when currencies are stable, inflation is low, and government finances are sound. Those conditions are unlikely in the coming years.

A Market Fall in the Fall?

The macro setting for our collective transition from summer to fall in 2026 is marked by rising yields across the western yield curve, from Paris to DC.

These rising yields, which represent the cost of servicing debt for nations and enterprises (i.e. stocks) already in debt beyond the sustainability mark, are nothing less than flashing warnings of Uh-Oh ahead.

As of this writing, for example, the yield on the 10Y UST has climbed past the Rubicon of sanity to a dangerous 4.7% at the same time trillions of outstanding USTs face a re-finance at much higher rates.

Needless to say, U.S. tax receipts and GDP will not be enough to pay for the same.

More Non-QE-QE…

This means we can expect more “Non-QE-QE” from a debt-trapped and fork-tongued Fed which will need to create trillions in more back-door liquidity (i.e. synthetic dollars) off the Fed’s balance sheet to avoid having to say the embarrassing “QE” word out loud.

Toward this desperate end, Warsh has familiar tricks up his sleeve to keep the TBTF banks (the Fed’s real mandate) temporarily liquid at the expense of Main Street inflation and employment stresses (which are the Fed’s pretended mandates).

In addition to draining liquidity from the Treasury General Account, bailing out the Repo markets or issuing more unwanted IOUs from the short end of the yield-curve,Warsh, talking like a hawk, will be dovishly adding a trillion dollars of levered capital to the big banks by simple non-compliance with the Basel III rules, a maze so complicated that no one on Main Street is expected to notice.

Meanwhile, as Japan, formerly America’s largest buyer of USTs, has become a massive seller of the same, this latest threat to Uncle Sam’s unloved IOUs is being “solved” by more indirect QE conveniently described as “repurchase agreements.”

But in plain English, all these “repurchase agreements” boil down to is this: The moment Japan dumps USTs, the Fed is buying them at volume in a near-term attempt to keep bond prices (and hence yields) under control with printed dollar demand for otherwise unloved USTs.

This is just a diet-Coke version of Yield Curve Control and hidden QE by another name.

America’s Check Mate Moment

In short, as the world foreseeably dumps weaponized and over-indebted USTs at a record pace in favor of gold-stacking at an equally record pace (driven primarily by the Chinese), the writing on the U.S. debt wall couldn’t be more clear: American debt management has reached its checkmate moment.

There are no good moves left.

If the Fed allows rates to go higher to “fight inflation,” this will crush everything but the USD in its wake—from stocks and bonds to BTC and yes, even gold–temporarily.

But eventually, higher rates just hit a wall of Fiscal Dominance wherein the rates become too high for even Uncle Sam to pay its own debt.

As a result, more dollar debasing QE inevitably follows, as we saw in the wake of Powell’s attempt at Higher-for-Longer in 2022 and 2023, after which gold ripped to all-time-highs in the years (and liquidity) that followed.

Alternatively, if the Fed uses extreme liquidity for extreme YCC (which it always ends up doing), this just “saves” its bond market at the direct expense of its currency, which leads, once again, to yet another tailwind for gold.

The Dollar (and Gold’s) End-Game is Clear

What all of these broad strokes ultimately point to is this: The dollar’s mathematical end-game is weaker not stronger; which means gold’s end-game is stronger not weaker.

This is not only a consequence of the hard math of debt, it is the very goal of a now desperate DC which is increasingly in favor of a weaker rather than stronger dollar to achieve its “Hamiltonian” new direction of allegedly making America “great again.”

As for this new direction, Treasury Secretary Bessent all but confessed this in a recent WSJ op-ed, and even Trump, knowingly or unknowingly, said the “Hamiltonian” part out loud when bragging about returning to the “policies of 1870 to 1913.”

But just what is this “Hamiltonian” new direction?

Going Hamiltonian

In a nutshell, it boils down to Hamilton’s 1790 version of building a then emerging American productivity base via extreme protectionism and hence otherwise unfair tariff practices.

This effectively meant that foreigners rather than Americans would pay for America’s own growth (or post-civil war re-growth).

Such protectionism made sense when America was an emerging nation in the 1790’s, or seeking to re-build its economy after the U.S. civil war ended in 1865.

But as America celebrates its 250^th national birthday in 2026, this return to Hamiltonian thinking looks a tad more desperate than innovative.

Since the U.S. outsourced American manufacturing to China under the WTO deals of 2000 and 2001 (nod to Clinton), a country once known for manufacturing became an outsourced nation of factory lay-offs and extreme financialization rather than domestic manufacturing.

This was a disaster.

Rather than open China’s market as a great “purchaser” of American widgets, the WTO deal, with the complicit support of American CEO’s seeking cheaper labor and higher personal incomes/margins, simply opened China up as the greater manufacturer of American widgets.

Now the Trump white house seeks to reshore American manufacturing and labor, which on its face, is more than reasonable and very much needed.

Hamilton in 2026?

But here’s the rub: Reshoring is expensive. And the U.S. under Trump, unlike Hamilton’s 18th-century America, is staring down the fatal barrel of $40T in public debt.

This is a debt figure which must surely have Alexander Hamilton rolling in his Manhattan grave.

In order for DC to re-shore American manufacturing in such a debt backdrop, it will need a weaker dollar to both inject the needed capital as well as compete in a trade war which requires a weaker rather than stronger dollar for its export advantages.

On the other side of the Hamiltonian (i.e., protectionist) camp in DC are the classic neo-liberalist or globalist policy makers who prefer free flows and free trade to get the lowest prices on goods for American citizens.

Naturally, cheaper TV’s made in China or Japan are nice for American shoppers at Walmart, but it’s hardly much of a trade-off to haver cheaper TVs in American living rooms at the expense of millions of laid off workers in the U.S. rust-belt.

Make the Dollar Weak Again

Thus, for Trump and/or Bessent to make American manufacturing “great again,” a weaker dollar is not just a debate, it’s essential policy.

The problem is a weaker dollar helps DC, but the dollar debasement and inflation required to re-shore and re-build American productivity will hit Main Street hard in the gut via a dollar so diluted (and unsupported by equivalent wage hikes) that not even a comically bogus CPI scale will be able to hide the inflation metastasizing throughout America.

This means DC will need another way to pay for its Hamiltonian schemes than just protectionism and dollar-debasement gone wild.

The Golden Option

They will need another asset to monetize this ambitious project of American re-shoring. As Bessent himself hinted, it’s time to “monetize the asset side of the American balance sheet.”

To me, at least, this means it’s time to monetize the 260 million ounces of allegedly U.S.-held gold still priced at roughly $42.00/oz.

Such a revaluation of U.S. gold holdings (aided by the Venezuelan gold handed to Uncle Sam via the Bank of England) to market price would remove the embarrassment of more “QE” headlines and a too-rapid dollar debasement.

In short, such a gold revaluation would buy the USA something it desperately needs: Time and money.

From “Enemy” to Asset of Last Resort

But any re-valuation of U.S.-held gold would certainly do a lot more for the U.S. balance sheet if gold were marked to market at a higher rather than lower market price.

This places the U.S. at not only an historical decision point, but also an historical turning point as to its traditional view on gold.

Ever since the U.S. left the gold standard in 1971, gold was, as Volcker famously said, “America’s enemy.” After all, rising gold was an open middle finger to a post-71, nothing-backed dollar.

This early need to fight the golden “enemy” explains why the COMEX and CME tricks to legally price fix gold and silver began in earnest (along with the Petrodollar scheme) directly after the dollar decoupled from gold in August of 1971.

It was essential that rising gold be controlled to avoid humiliating the Greenback.

But 55 years later, the “exorbitant privilege” of the USD’s global hegemony is now stumbling under the self-inflicted wound of too much debt, a distrusted and weaponized IOU and a petrodollar in open shift in the wake of the Iranian fiasco.

As a result of these changing facts, and after decades of exporting US inflation to the rest of the world, the increasingly diluted and unloved dollar is no longer just the world’s problem, it’s America’s problem as well.

Which means that what Bessent and Trump (as well as Judy Shelton) are subtly suggesting is that gold is no longer our “enemy.”

Instead, and quite ironically, gold is now one of America’s last options to de-deficit at least a portion of its fiscal nightmare.

Rather than Repress Gold, Let It Run

Or stated even more simply, it is now in the USA’s best interest to let gold run rather than to price fix it lower on a COMEX which has lost both its gold and credibility as China and Hong Kong move from paper-based exchanges to physical precious metal exchanges.

Gold at $4,000/oz., for example, won’t help the USA de-deficit nearly as much as it could if gold were at $17,000/oz., $20,000/oz or higher (in fact much higher) in the years to come.

And if you are wondering why central banks are stacking more gold than USTs today, it’s partly because that is precisely where they see gold heading: Much higher…

If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most shipping and the routes into and out of the Red Sea remain restricted, crude could be closer to $200 by the end of next year.

But the real impact will be on product prices.

Gasoline could rise above $7 a gallon and diesel above $9.

That would have serious consequences for the U.S. economy, particularly with more than $100 trillion of debt and a financial system that is already highly leveraged.

The first stage could be a correction in the S&P 500.

A 6% to 8% correction is expected before the traditional year-end rally, which could take the index toward 8,500.

But with recession and some of the excesses in the financial system exposed, the S&P 500 could fall toward 5,000. Base-metal prices would also decline.

That would put the U.S. economy into recession next year.

The next phase could be even more difficult.

The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will begin stimulating more aggressively in the fourth quarter of 2027. That would mark the beginning of a strong inflationary period extending into 2030–2032.

During those years, equity and base-metal prices could rise sharply. The S&P 500 could reach more than 10,000, while copper could reach $28,000.

But those figures need to be measured against the dollar.

If the DXY falls by half, an S&P 500 above 10,000 or copper at $28,000 would represent much less in 2026 dollars.

This is one reason physical gold becomes so important in the outlook.

The recommendation is to use stock-market rallies to reduce equity exposure and buy physical gold held outside the banking system.

“On every rally in the stock market, it will be prudent to liquidate and to buy physical gold.”

The period after 2030 could then bring a major crash in asset values. A monetary reset is expected during this phase, potentially involving a cryptocurrency linked to U.S. government debt.

China is moving in a different direction.

Its RMB and gold trading facilities in Hong Kong have been expanding. The expectation is that China could announce a currency backed by the gold held by its citizens and government, potentially as early as 2028.

The estimates presented put Chinese private gold holdings at around 25,000 to 27,000 tonnes, with government holdings potentially adding another 25,000 tonnes.

This leaves two very different monetary possibilities:

• A currency backed by government debt

• A currency backed by gold

For investors, the issue is ultimately purchasing power.

If oil rises toward $200, inflation accelerates, the dollar loses half its value, and financial markets eventually suffer a major correction, nominal prices will tell only part of the story.

Physical gold provides a way to hold wealth without depending on the continued strength of the dollar or the banking system.

KEY INSIGHTS

00:17 – 01:27 | Oil could reach $200 a barrel

Restricted shipping through Hormuz and the Red Sea could push crude toward $200, gasoline above $7, and diesel above $9.

01:28 – 02:56 | Recession could hit in 2027

The S&P 500 could rally toward 8,500 before falling toward 5,000 as recession exposes financial excesses.

02:57 – 03:52 | Inflation returns through 2030–2032

Fed stimulus could trigger a strong inflationary period that continues into 2030–2032.

03:53 – 04:31 | The dollar could lose half its value

The DXY could fall by 50%, changing the real value of rising equity and commodity prices.

04:32 – 05:18 | A major asset crash could follow

The period after 2030 could bring a major decline in asset values and a new monetary reset.

05:19 – 06:11 | China prepares for a gold-backed yuan

China is expanding its RMB and gold trading facilities in Hong Kong and could move toward a gold-backed currency.

06:12 – 06:35 | Physical gold becomes the protection

Physical gold held outside the banking system is presented as protection against a major decline in asset values and currency weakness.

“Gold is money and all else is credit.”

The dollar was once defined by the amount of gold behind it. In 1879, $1 represented 23.22 grains of gold. After the gold price was fixed at $35 an ounce in 1934, that fell to 13.714 grains.

And today? The equivalent is around 0.11 of a grain.

The pressure on currencies is now showing up elsewhere, too. Japan is a good example.

Japan depends on oil and LNG from the Gulf. Shipments from America’s strategic petroleum reserves have helped replace part of that supply, particularly for it. But those reserves are now being depleted.

Thus, Japan is facing three pressures at the same time:

• Higher energy costs

• Rising bond yields

• An enormous debt burden

The situation brings back memories of the 1970s. During the 1973–74 oil crisis, Japanese consumer price inflation eventually reached between 25% and 30%.

It has also been a major source of capital for the U.S. and other G7 economies, including the U.S. Treasury market.

If Japanese institutions begin selling foreign assets to meet funding needs at home, those investment flows could start moving in the opposite direction.

That would put more pressure on bond markets.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is already moving higher after breaking out of its previous range.

Higher oil prices could add to that pressure. More expensive energy would feed into consumer prices, while higher inflation would make it harder for bond yields to come down.

And this is where the argument returns to gold.

China has spent decades preparing for a world in which the dollar plays a smaller role.

Since 1971, it has steadily built up its gold holdings, while recent measures have strengthened the connection between the Hong Kong gold market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

The free movement of gold between mainland China and Hong Kong would be important if China were to move toward a yuan backed by gold.

Russia could potentially take a similar path. But the G7 has far less room to return to a gold standard because doing so would require major cuts in government spending at a time when their economies are already under pressure.

That leaves the United States with two choices:

Protect the dollar and let the economy suffer OR protect the economy and let the dollar weaken.

Neither choice comes without consequences, and this brings us back to J.P. Morgan’s point.

When currencies are built on expanding credit, their value depends on confidence in the system behind them. Gold does not carry that same dependency.

KEY INSIGHTS

00:00 – 01:09 | Gold reveals the dollar’s long decline

The dollar’s gold equivalent has fallen from 23.22 grains in 1879 to around 0.11 grains today.

01:09 – 03:03 | Japan faces a new oil crisis

Depleting U.S. strategic petroleum reserves could leave Japan facing higher oil costs, a weaker currency, and rising bond yields.

03:03 – 04:18 | Japan’s debt problem could spread

Rising funding costs may force Japan to reduce its overseas investments, with potential consequences for U.S. Treasuries and other G7 bond markets.

04:19 – 05:19 | Oil could push inflation higher

Higher energy prices could feed into consumer inflation and put further pressure on bond yields.

05:19 – 06:41 | China is moving closer to gold

China is strengthening the connection between its Hong Kong and Shanghai gold markets as it prepares for a world where the yuan plays a larger role.

06:41 – 07:46 | Why the G7 cannot simply return to gold

A return to a gold standard would require major cuts in government spending at a time when economic weakness could demand more stimulus.

07:46 – 08:21 | America’s two choices

The U.S. can protect the dollar and risk the economy, or support the economy and accept further weakness in the currency.

Stick to the Essential

Antoine de St. Exupery famously (and wisely) wrote that the “essential is invisible.”

In philosophical matters pertaining to the art of living, this phrase has great depth.

But in matters pertaining to market risk and economic forecasting, it will come as no surprise to anyone familiar with our views that the “essential lies in the bond market.”

As bonds fall in trust, demand and hence price, their yields then rise.

And these yields (the highest in decades) represent the true cost of sovereign debt, which we all know is beyond sustainability.

At $40T in comical, mismanaged and criminally negligent public debt, the last thing the USA needs today are rising yields at the long end of its sovereign bond market, especially with over $8T of those bonds facing a re-fi (at a much higher rate) in the next 12 months.

Right now, America pays $3B per day on just the interest expense of its public debt.

As I’ve said countless times: Spiking yields and hence spiking debt costs are like shark fins to policy makers drowning in a debt-storm of their own doing.

The collision of these rising yields and rising debt levels mathematically means more currency debasement will be engaged to inflate away Uncle Sam’s increasingly grotesque bar tab.

This also means gold’s anti-fiat role as a store of real rather than fiat value/money is just beginning to stretch its legs.

So, how do we know what’s coming for gold in such a global monetary sea-change?

That’s easy. In fact, Japan’s yen and the Fed’s Warsh just told us so.

What the Yen’s Summer Collapse Really Means

As for the yen, it just reached its weakest levels against the USD in four decades.

This Japanese currency fall is the direct result of decades of extreme money printing, repressed interest rates and a debt/GDP ratio that waters the eyes.

(Sound familiar?)

Japan’s latest finance minister (they come and go like melting snowflakes) tried to save their yen with $73B worth of currency support (thanks to a massive Japanese sale of USTs).

But that strategy clearly failed.

Equally unsuccessful was Tokyo’s attempt to raise interest rates to a whopping 1% in June (the highest levels seen since the 1990’s).

This was pathetic, especially given the fact that for my entire market career, Tokyo ran zero to even negative rates.

The Carry Trade Is Over

Of course, at zero to negative rates, Japan became THE go-to lender for the global shadow banking and corporate elites, who would happily borrow yen for nothing and then convert those yen into trillions of dollars for massive leverage in the S&P and NASDAQ.

The fancy lads called this the Japanese “carry trade.” It was an absolute boon for American stocks.

But folks, the Japanese banks are now cutting off that free money spigot.

The carry trade (which saw its first hiccups in August of 2024) is now over, and the ripple effects are swelling into tidal waves racing toward your 401Ks.

The Market Pain Is Just Beginning

If you haven’t already noticed, the NASDAQ just saw its worst July in decades, which had a lot to do with all the selling of tech stocks by Japanese firms, which are now bringing their money home in order to desperately yet realistically exploit the biggest currency arbitrage in decades.

After all, when the yen is at historical lows, what better time than now for Japan to cash in on stronger dollar-based stocks?

Unfortunately, the timing couldn’t be worse for American stocks and bonds, as Japan’s actions don’t exist in a vacuum.

When the BoJ raises rates and the carry trade ends in a backdrop of hedge funds closing their levered stock positions, those same masters of the Wall Street universe have no choice but to buy back yen to close their credit obligations.

In order to get this cash, those same fund managers (and many large corporate C-suites) must also sell a whole lot of U.S. stocks and USTs.

We are talking lots and lots of them.

This translates to a perfect storm of Japanese and global hedge funds simultaneously selling risk assets at the apex of an undeniable market bubble.

This is serious.

Not only will criminally negligent and AI-over-exposed tech stocks feel the selling pain, but an equally massive sell-off in USTs is converging this summer.

This means falling bond prices and yes, you guessed it: Spiking yields.

Ouch.

Once again (and as seen in March of 2020, fiscal year 2022, or Liberation Day of 2025), stocks and bonds are falling together rather than hedging each other’s risk.

As warned for years, the classic 60-40 stock-bond portfolio couldn’t be more useless as a modern risk hedge.

This is because bonds are no longer a safe haven in a backdrop of such an unprecedented and unsustainable sovereign debt profile.

This profile, of course, poses a problem for wordsmiths at the Fed, and Kevin Warsh’s words are worth translating from spin to reality.

Warsh Enters a Broken Stage

Unlike the Volcker era where U.S. public debt was measured in billions rather than trillions, Warsh, like Powell, can never fight inflation via rate hikes for the simple reason that DC’s bar tab can’t afford higher rates.

Any rate hikes to allegedly “fight” openly misreported inflation eventually just forces the Fed to expand/print more debased and mouse-clicked dollars to pay down the rate hike.

This is a nation within a fiscal dominance trap which renders any so-called anti-inflationary rate-hike policy inherently, well: Inflationary.

The parabolic rise in U.S. M2 money supply speaks for itself:

It was thus hardly any nail-biter that no rate hike was announced in July.

Translating Fed-Speak into Common Sense

What I found more entertaining, however, were the Fed Chairman’s platitudes at the press conference which came immediately after the announcement of unchanged rates.

In particular, I was fascinated by the following Warsh comments, namely:

“The FOMC, by a 9 to 3 vote, decided to maintain the target range of the Fed Funds Rate of 3.5 and 3.75%.”

“The economy is showing impressive resilience.”

“Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”

Hmmm…

As always, one must congratulate these Fed lords for their impressive ability to effectively say the sky is green and the grass is blue with such confidence and regularity that it almost seems true.

What Warsh didn’t say is: 1) that inflation far outpaces the Fed Funds Rate; 2) the “impressive resilience” of our economy ignores record credit card delinquencies and car-loan repossessions which outpace the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, or the lowest reported reading ever measured at the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index; and 3) that we’ve seen over 15 months of consecutive downward revisions of his so called “job gains.”

In short, and with the calm (and haircut) of a media prompt-reader, Warsh managed to say three fictions in less than 30 seconds without changing expression.

This spin is nothing new at all to those familiar with Fed-speak.

By itself, it cannot explain why the DOW then fell by 1000 points and yields on the long end of the curve went moon-bound following the Warsh press conference.

Warsh Said the Quiet Part Out Loud

Such open and violent market reaction came from something else which Marsh said, and it’s worth repeating here because it amounts to a subtle confession of what we’ve been warning with blunt consistency, namely that the Fed will eventually lose control of the bond market.

Specifically, and at the beginning of the Warsh press conference, Warsh was directly asked why nine FOMC members (Warsh among them) did not vote to raise rates.

His response was nothing short of astounding when one reads between the lines:

“Rates are higher today than they were 42 days ago. Markets have made decisions because we stepped back in part from trying to influence those. Market judgements have moved up on what nominal rates are across the Treasury curve… Markets are reacting in real time. Monetary policy matters not by just what we say, or even what we do…These prices we see in financial markets is one of the many ways in which [monetary policy] effects the real economy”

Translated into real-speak, what Marsh really said boils down to this: “Rates are rising without the Fed having to raise them because the markets no longer trust our IOUs and are setting a risk premium of their own, which is outside our control.”

This is scary. But it’s also no surprise at all.

The Fed is Losing Control of the Bond Market

Eventually, the bond market itself (and not the Fed’s rate or balance sheet policies) will determine bond yields and hence debt pricing.

And that pricing (as measured by boring things like bond yields) is ripping fatally and uncontrollably north.

This rising cost of debt, driven by distrust of weaponized and over-indebted IOUs, in conjunction with massive waves of more sellers (think Japan above) than buyers of Uncle Sam’s debt, will only get worse.

This also means that stocks supported by cheap debt will tank, and bonds unloved by the world will do the same.

The Only “Solution” is Worse than the Cure

Unless, of course, the Fed steps in to control those yields with trillions of direct or indirect QE to purchase these objectively unloved bonds.

But this inevitable and essential “solution” for our openly dying bond market comes with a fatal cost—namely continued currency debasement as Uncle Sam sacrifices (debases) his ever-expanding dollar to save (pay for) his ugly IOUs.

This sacrificing of paper money to save over-stretched bonds is the oldest and most desperate trick in a long history of once-great nations facing a debt crisis and hegemonic turning point.

It All Comes Back to Gold

The bond market is indeed everything, and what it is telling you far more honestly than the American Fed or Japanese BoJ is that your fiat money is consistently losing absolute purchasing power in plain sight.

This explains why a deliberate fire-sale in precious metals was unleased early in 2026 to allow the whales to accumulate real money (gold) while the masses stare at their tech positions (and losses).

As usual, Main Street is the last to get the memo on gold. They got shaken out with price manipulations and price headlines while the smiling whales bought the world’s most important asset at a discount.

This also means that if you measure your wealth in paper currencies rather than physical gold, you are being robbed in equally plain sight.

The Whales, of course, don’t care, and they don’t want you to know.

A ceasefire is announced → Negotiations resume → Markets react → Attention moves elsewhere.

But some conflicts have consequences that reach well beyond the battlefield. Iran War is one of them.

Rather than viewing it as an isolated dispute, it is placed within a much larger change taking place in international politics. China, Russia and several other countries are increasingly challenging a world order that has long been led by the United States.

Napoleon is often credited with saying, “Let China sleep; when she wakes, she will shake the world.” Whether or not he ever said those words, China’s growing influence has become one of the defining developments of this century.

Within that framework, the conflict involving Iran takes on greater significance.

Iran occupies a strategic position at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest energy corridors. Much of the oil exported from the Gulf passes through this narrow waterway before continuing toward Europe and Asia.

The Strait of Hormuz is only one link in the chain. Oil leaving the Gulf also passes through the Bab al-Mandab Strait before reaching the Suez Canal and international markets.

Control over these routes has consequences far beyond the Middle East. Any prolonged disruption would affect energy supplies, transportation costs and industrial production, eventually feeding through to the global economy.

The outlook assumes that the conflict is far from settled.

Negotiations have continued, but there are doubts that Washington will accept the conditions outlined in the proposed Memorandum of Understanding. In this framework, the current pause is viewed as temporary rather than permanent.

That matters because prolonged conflict comes at a cost for both sides.

For the United States, one concern is the growing strain on military resources. The war has required substantial use of missiles and drones at a time when replenishing those inventories is becoming more difficult.

The pressure is not limited to defence.

Many American refineries were built to process sour crude oil from the Gulf. If emergency supplies continue to decline, the concern is not simply higher oil prices but tighter supplies of the products refined from that crude.

Diesel, jet fuel, gasoline and fertilisers all depend on those supply chains.

Recent price movements illustrate how quickly those pressures can appear. Sulphur, an important ingredient in fertilizer production, has risen sharply. European natural gas prices, heating oil and U.S. diesel have also moved higher since the conflict intensified.

The quoted price of a barrel of oil tells only part of the story. What matters just as much are the products inside that barrel and how disruptions work their way through the wider economy.

Higher energy costs would arrive at a time when the global financial system is already carrying record levels of debt.

That combination sits at the centre of the outlook.

Global debt reached approximately $368 trillion last year, covering governments, households, corporations and financial institutions. According to the figures presented, the United States accounted for around $104 trillion of that total.

The figures also point to a growing dependence on debt.

For every dollar of economic growth generated in the United States, around $4.50 of additional debt was required. For the rest of the world, the ratio was considerably lower.

Debt alone is not the concern.

Attention is also drawn to the growing use of leverage throughout the financial system. Credit spreads remain close to cycle lows, consumer loans continue to be packaged into securities, and private credit has expanded rapidly over recent years.

The comparison is not exact, but the parallels with 2008 are difficult to ignore.

Then, highly rated securities concealed risks that many investors failed to recognize until markets began to unwind. The concern today is that leverage has once again become deeply embedded throughout the financial system.

Whether those vulnerabilities result in a crisis cannot be known in advance.

The expectation presented here is that 2027 will bring recessionary conditions, prompting another round of monetary and fiscal stimulus to support economic activity.

The comparison is drawn with the years between 1978 and 1982, when inflation accelerated alongside rising interest rates. This time, monetary policy, higher energy costs and rising food prices are expected to reinforce one another, placing additional pressure on governments, businesses and consumers.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar could weaken if confidence in the existing monetary system continues to erode.

These conditions also raise questions about what comes next.

The United States may seek to strengthen its financial system through stablecoins or another digital currency linked to government debt.

China, meanwhile, continues to expand its gold and yuan infrastructure, reinforcing the role that gold could play within the international monetary system.

This brings us to gold.

THE REFUGE THAT GOLD PROVIDES

Periods like these have historically increased the importance of liquidity, purchasing power and financial security.

Within this outlook, physical gold is valued for the liquidity it can provide when needed… and for its ability to preserve purchasing power through periods of inflation and monetary instability.

Wars and financial turmoils can’t always be avoided. Preparing for them begins with holding real wealth.

KEY INSIGHTS

00:00 – 01:35 | The world order is changing

The conflict involving Iran is presented as part of a broader shift from a U.S.-led world toward a multipolar system shaped by China, Russia and other nations.

01:36 – 04:05 | Why the Strait of Hormuz matters

Control of key shipping routes could influence global oil flows, regional security and the balance of power in the Middle East.

04:06 – 06:07 | The hidden cost of the oil conflict

The greater risk may lie inside the barrel, as shortages and rising prices for refined products work their way through the global economy.

06:08 – 08:10 | A financial system built on debt

Record debt levels, growing leverage and similarities to 2008 raise questions about how resilient today’s financial system really is.

08:11 – 09:58 | Inflation and the next monetary reset

Higher energy and food prices, rising inflation and competing monetary systems could define the years ahead.

09:59 – 10:35 | Gold remains the refuge

Physical gold is presented as protection against inflation, currency weakness and financial instability.

For many investors, that looks like the end of the rally. But corrections like this have always been part of silver’s story.

Truth is:

Its biggest advances have almost always been interrupted by sharp corrections.

But what makes this correction different?

One measure receives particular attention: the gold-to-silver ratio. It compares the price of gold with the price of silver. When the ratio falls, that means silver is outperforming gold.

The challenge is that most investors react to price. As the saying goes,

Assets that have fallen out of favour attract little interest, while those making headlines quickly capture everyone’s attention.

We can see that pattern in the way many people look at gold. Its performance is often judged by starting the chart in 1980, when it reached $850 an ounce, while overlooking its rise from just $35 in 1971.

Silver deserves the same perspective. Despite this year’s correction, it has still more than doubled over the past few years. Looking only at the recent pullback overlooks the much larger move that came before it.

That becomes even more relevant today.

Stocks remain near record highs. Bonds continue to struggle with inflation. Governments around the world are carrying debts that become harder to repay every year.

At the same time, central banks continue to accumulate gold, and major financial institutions are recommending much larger allocations than they were only a few years ago.

Even JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has warned investors to “brace yourself” for an economic hurricane.

So, “What should investors do with the rest of their portfolio?”

Gold should still make up the majority of a precious metals holding. But with the correction reaching over 50%, silver now deserves a larger allocation than before. That’s why Egon’s advice is to buy silver with both hands.

The path is unlikely to be smooth. But if the longer-term trend unfolds as expected, today’s prices may eventually look very different.

KEY INSIGHTS

00:00 – 01:18 | Silver’s correction creates opportunity

The recent pullback has strengthened the long-term case for silver despite its well-known volatility.

01:19 – 01:57 | Silver could outperform gold

A falling gold-to-silver ratio could allow silver to rise two to three times faster than gold.

01:58 – 03:46 | Most investors buy at the wrong time

Investors often ignore precious metals when prices are low and become interested only after strong rallies.

03:47 – 04:19 | Silver’s long-term case remains intact

Investment demand, industrial demand, and market fundamentals continue to support silver.

04:20 – 05:50 | Where else can investors turn?

Growing risks in stocks, bonds, debt, and paper currencies are strengthening the case for precious metals.

05:51 – 06:34 | Gold and silver protect wealth

Physical precious metals are presented as a way to preserve purchasing power through monetary uncertainty.

06:35 – 07:32 | Gold first, silver second

Gold remains the core holding, while silver offers greater upside for investors who can tolerate its volatility.

Below, we look at the converging signposts screaming from the tech/AI sector and the equally obvious (yet deliberately downplayed) signals from a precious metals market entering a watershed turning point.

How the Whales Do Their “Magic”

As warned for years, and more recently here at the precious metals symposium in Florida, the insider whales (central and commercial banks, the BIS, the IMF and the shadow banking canyons of Wall Street) are clever little magicians.

They have a devious talent for manipulating (and destroying) the retail plankton by having the masses focus on their right hand while quietly gut-punching them with a banker’s hidden left hand.

Another Classic Tech Pump-n-Dump

Take, for example, the recent headlines from the tech sector in general and the AI rabbit hole in particular.

Despite a Fed-driven S&P which is historically over-valued by literally EVERY core valuation metric, all eyes of late had been salivating over the SpaceX IPO (trading at 100X revenues) and the Wall Street meme (and gambit) that AI will save the world.

This all-too familiar mania has been nothing short of hysterical—and for all the wrong reasons.

Behind this percolating, unprofitable and VC-funded madness lies (as always and as per usual) a cadre of over-levered banks sending/lending the markets at warp speed toward yet another debilitating credit (and then equity) crisis.

As warned in September of 2025, there’s much more to the AI “Great Dumbing” than just a wholesale slaughter of blue- and white-collar jobs.

In fact, a massive, contagious and AI-driven stock and bond bubble lies beneath the headlines which, with a little help from an equally toxic private credit and private equity threat, will soon send the global financial markets into yet another historical liquidity crisis.

As warned last year, the reckless over-investment by the Magnificent 7 “tech giants” (which comprise 1/3 of the US stock market cap) into the emerging AI mania “would soon move from over-bought to massively over-sold.”

AI: Hiding the Shameless Beneath the “Norm”

The nature of this over-concentrated mismanagement almost defies belief, as the AI bubble is driven by circular financing sins which deserve no redemption.

NVDA, for example, which makes the microchips that drive AI, invests billions in AI startups, who then buy AI chips back from NVDA, pushing its valuations moonward.

Microsoft, Google and Amazon are no less shameless.

Microsoft, for example, will place billions into OpenAI, who then sends that same money right back into Microsoft.

Google equally invests hundreds of billions into Anthropic, who then sends those same billions back into Google’s AI infrastructure. Amazon, playing the same game, tosses equal capital levels to Anthropic, who in turn invests that money straight into Amazon’s cloud servicing coffers.

These “magnificent” tech giants then have the gall to report AI-driven “revenue growth” on what is little more than an insider puff-job, the equivalent of me “investing” (giving) my son $1000 and then asking him to return the cash and calling that my “growth model.”

This Familiar Movie Doesn’t End Well

This, of course, is madness, and we (along with Apollo Research) are reminding YOU that there is in fact NO sign that the tech sector is making any real money at all from AI, other than from the companies selling to each other.

This incestuous pattern is eerily reminiscent of CISCO selling routers to dot.com startups in the late 90’s, which were funded by VC companies who were themselves funded by CISCO.

And we all remember how that -78% NASDAQ movie ended…

As of 2026, we now see a Mag-7 which has, with the help of those ever-wise TBTF banks in NYC, levered trillions into an AI gambit under the assumption that AI will make them more profitable in much the same way those same pre-08 banks thought ABS-packaged sub-prime mortgages would never fail.

And we all know how that -57% S&P movie ended too…

What’s even scarier, and not making the headlines today, is that those same banks have also seen that movie before. (Remember “Margin Call”?) After sending global markets to their knees in 2008, those same banks then issued themselves their highest bonus levels in history…

As for today, banks like Goldman Sachs are giving the retail plankton “research reports” on how undeniably significant technology like AI will save the world and the S&P.

Meanwhile, those same banks, and most notably the ever-clever JP Morgan, are quietly dumping their AI credit (junk bonds?) at a steady pace—you know, like profiteering rats leaving a ship before it sinks from their own lending practices.

Elon’s Bond Woes…

Folks, this is bad. But the hidden bad (as well as credit risk) doesn’t end in the oh-so magical AI sector. Elon’s SpaceX bonds are yet another tech-driven credit bug looking for a windshield.

Just after going public at a $1T valuation, SpaceX issued over $25B in bonds, and as of this writing, those bonds have already lost 10%.

We know that bonds are “boring” (and hence easily ignored). But as warned for years, the bond market is everything, and this latest credit signal from SpaceX is simply staggering in its implications.

Why?

Because those AI and SpaceX bonds (like those sub-prime ABS mortgages of the 2008 era) are likely part of your third-party-administered 401K and pension plans –just ticking away like a bad-debt time bomb as you read this.

From Crappy Bonds to Solid Gold

If the foregoing disconnect between media hype and hard math wasn’t bad enough, a far more lasting sea change in the global monetary system is unfolding right before our collectively closed eyes.

As the media and tourists/speculators (i.e., plankton) in the precious metals trade haggle over “peak gold” and decry short-term bear corrections in an otherwise obvious and misunderstood gold bull market, the big whales are calmly stacking metal in a deliberately manipulated fire sale as retail investors panic in the fog of daily price action.

Same Tricks, Different Asset

But again, this magic trick of blinding the plankton with hype/fear while the insider whales feast is nothing new.

The big banks from Wall Street to Hong Kong, as well as the central banks from Brazil to China, know that a UST and USD sinking under the weight of a 7% current accounts deficit and $3B/day in interest expenses on its $40T debt pile is no longer the world’s neutral collateral in actual practice.

This explains why there are more sellers than buyers of USTs.

And this explains why sovereign bond yields are the highest in decades.

This explains why central banks now hold more physical gold than USTs.

This also explains why the COMEX has been seeing two years of physical gold (and silver) flying out its doors faster than $#!T through a goose to meet foreign delivery demands. This equally explains why central bank gold stacking has increased by 5X since Biden weaponized the USD in 2022.

Finally, this fully explains why Q1 of 2026 saw central bank gold stacking reach its highest pace in history, and why central banks net-purchased 41 tons of gold in May alone.

Love or Hate Em’—China Sees the Bigger Picture

And no one foresaw this incremental and now exponential decline in USD and UST hegemony better than the Chinese.

The PBOC just completed its 20^th straight month of net gold-stacking, with a 15-ton purchase of gold in June.

Meanwhile, China imported more than 700 tons of the metal in the first 5 months of 2026 and over 14,000 tons since 2015.

Such farsighted preparation and strategic thinking (rather than flag-waving hopium) also explains why China’s largest bank, ICBC, along with four other major commercial banks, recently announced an end (effective July 24) of the paper trade (levered price fixing) of gold in favor of physical metal only—thereby undercutting (and giving a subtle middle-finger to) the paper-based farce of the NY COMEX exchange.

As the former head of the Shanghai exchange warned an overconfident West in 2014, soon China (with a partner in Hong Kong), rather than New York or London, would set the gold price, and this price will slowly become much fairer, and exponentially higher, when based on physical bars rather than paper claims.

In fact, much of that US gold is heading straight for China (see below), a nation that is essentially “de-paperizing” the gold market.

This obvious yet ignored direction of the golden “puck” also explains why Chinese citizens now invest more of their money into gold ETFs than stock ETFs.

In short, while Americans are being seduced by their “experts” into tech tops and scared out of gold-buys, the farsighted Chinese are encouraging their citizens to load up on real money rather than bad credit.

In short, each of the foregoing (and entirely media-ignored) signals confirm that China sees the longer-term direction of a gold-based monetary system(rather than gold-backed currency) far better than a debt-corned and media-misinformed West.

Rock Beats Paper

In this 2026 backdrop of trade, currency and now “hot” wars, China (and many other far-sighted nations and banks inside and outside of the BRICS+ coalition) are effectively loading their monetary guns with golden rather than paper bullets.

In other words, physical gold is no longer just another “asset,” “commodity,” or “metal” to compare against stocks, bonds or other “sectors.”

Gold is mathematically and objectively becoming the de facto global reserve asset and trusted collateral in a world now marked by an undeniable distrust in each other in general and the USD/UST in particular.

Building Their Arks Before the Rain

Stated even more simply, the central banks and central planners are preparing for a new monetary system which no one at FOX News, the WSJ or CNBC wants the US “plankton class” to see or understand.

As usual, the whales are quietly stacking precious metals in a self-made fire-sale while the retail plankton decry current price volatility as if gold were just another tech stock.

For now, and as warned even at gold’s highs in January, volatility can continue. Prices never move in a straight line, and bearish corrections are typical of secularly bullish turning points to shake out the minnows to enrich the bigger fish.

But for those who see the bigger picture (and direction) for gold, the question is not whether one times a bottom or waits for the perfect entry (a total mug’s game).

The real question is whether or not you see this generational turning point in the global monetary system and are building your golden ark before or after the rain?

Based on the signals above, the rain has already started, and the big boys are now busily building their arks. They are not looking at gold’s paper price today or tomorrow, but at gold’s physical and exponentially higher price, direction and role in the many years ahead.

Such knowledge confirms that if you grasp the history and math of gold, and posses the patience of an investor rather than a trader, this broke(n) world is literally handing you the greatest asset (and buy signal) in a generation—and one which will ensure and protect generations of wealth in the years to come.

This is not a “gold bug” fable but historical fact.

Period.

Our thesis of a remonetization of gold may seem bold at first glance, which makes a clear conceptual framework all the more important. Those waiting for the reintroduction of a classical gold standard will be disappointed: Governments have no incentive to voluntarily relinquish the fiscal and monetary flexibility that the fiat regime offers them. Rather, what is meant is a process in which gold regains monetary relevance. Not necessarily as money in the strict sense, but certainly as the ultimate reference asset for value, trust, and settlement.

This remonetization does not occur by decree, but through function; not through revolution, but through evolution; not a sudden fanfare, but a steadily rising crescendo. Paradigm shifts often creep in through customs, certainties, and economic necessities. Gold is not moving to the center of the system. Rather, driven by fiscal exhaustion, geopolitical fragmentation, and dwindling institutional trust, the system is moving toward gold.

What connects the following six vectors is a shared underlying structure: At each of these junctures, gold regains a key role as a store of value and a safe haven. Not all vectors will become reality simultaneously or in their entirety, but several parallel channels should suffice to sustainably strengthen gold’s monetary relevance.

The six vectors

Vector I: Reserve Function & Sovereignty

Ever since the freezing of Russian reserves in 2022, it has become clear to many market participants that fiat reserves carry not only market risk but also political risk. Gold is the only major reserve asset without issuer risk. Repatriations in Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, and most recently France underscore this trend.

Vector II: Private Remonetization

Not only governments but also institutions are rediscovering gold as a store of value. Pension funds, family offices, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds have often held only minimal gold allocations to date. Even small shifts away from the global bond market could trigger enormous demand. Gold is thus evolving from a tactical allocation to a strategic liquidity reserve, from a “satellite” to a “core” investment.

Vector III: Accounting & Recapitalization

Gold functions not only as a reserve but also as an accounting lever. Since 1999, the Eurosystem has regularly valued gold at market prices; the resulting revaluation reserves effectively act as equity. In the US, too, the debate over revaluing gold reserves is gaining traction. In highly indebted countries, gold can thus become an instrument of silent recapitalization.

Vector IV: Anchoring Through Gold-Backed Bonds

Gold-backed government bonds could strengthen confidence and lower financing costs. Proposals such as those by Judy Shelton show that what is at stake is not a new gold standard, but a credibility standard. The difference between an unsecured government bond and a gold-backed one is similar to that between a promise and a pledge.

Vector V: Western Central Banks as Buyers

The major gold buyers in recent years have come primarily from emerging markets. The next phase could begin if Western central banks with low gold holdings—such as Canada, Japan, Australia, or the United Kingdom—replenish their gold reserves. Even moderate target reserves would generate demand equivalent to one year’s worth of mine production.

Vector VI: Digitalization

Tokenization could solve gold’s historical transaction problem. Gold-backed tokens combine physical scarcity with digital transferability. This positions gold as a competitor to fiat payment systems and CBDCs. The key factor remains whether ownership rights, backing, verifiability, and insolvency resilience are robustly structured.

The vectors described do not operate in isolation. A rising gold price improves central bank balance sheets, facilitates policy reassessments, strengthens the appeal of gold-backed bonds, and increases interest in tokenized forms of gold. It is precisely these feedback loops that make remonetization not a single event, but a self-reinforcing process.

Remonetization is taking shape

We are by no means the only analysts pointing to the possible evolution of the monetary system. Zoltan Pozsar had already elevated the debate on a new world monetary order to a new level in 2022 with his article “Bretton Woods III,” against the backdrop of sanctions on Russian currency reserves. He concluded his remarks with the following forecast: “From the Bretton Woods era backed by gold bullion, to Bretton Woods II backed by inside money (Treasuries with unhedgeable confiscation risks), to Bretton Woods III backed by outside money (gold bullion and other commodities).”

There is no question in our minds that we are irrevocably on a journey toward a new global (monetary) order. It will require an internationally recognized anchor of confidence. For several reasons, gold appears to be predestined for this role:

• Gold is neutral – it knows neither flag nor ideology and is thus free from geopolitical manipulation.

• Gold has no counterparty risk – unlike any claim or digital account entry, it exists independently, without relying on the promise of a third party.

• Gold is liquid – with a daily trading volume of around USD 330bn, it ranks among the world’s most liquid assets.

• Gold cannot be multiplied at will – gold reserves have been growing steadily by around 1.8% per year for decades. This geologically determined supply discipline is the fundamental difference from any fiat currency.

The composition of global currency reserves shows how far remonetization has already progressed. For decades, US Treasury bonds formed the backbone of official portfolios. Since the global financial crisis, the trend has reversed: The share of US bonds held by foreign central banks is declining, while gold is gaining significantly again. Despite significant purchases, emerging markets still hold considerably less gold than Western institutions.

What Connects the Six Vectors: Feedback Loops

As different as these six vectors may seem, they share a common underlying structure. In every case, gold regains monetary significance precisely where the existing system relies on trust, the quality of collateral, or political neutrality. Gold is not becoming more relevant because it has been modernized. It is becoming more relevant because the weaknesses of the alternatives are becoming apparent.

Feedback instead of addition

The key point is that the vectors do not act in isolation but reinforce one another. The cycle reads like a self-reinforcing engine:

• Accumulation (Vector V) and private demand (Vector II) drive the gold price.

• A rising gold price improves central banks’ balance sheets (Vector III).

• Improved balance sheets reduce political resistance to gold-backed bonds (Vector IV).

• Gold-backed bonds legitimize gold as a reserve asset (Vector I).

• A higher, legitimized gold price makes tokenized gold products more attractive (Vector VI).

• Tokenization, in turn, increases demand – and closes the loop.

This positive feedback loop is the actual catalyst. Once a critical mass is reached, the process accelerates on its own. Remonetization is thus not a binary event but a gradual phase transition. It can begin with reserves, gain traction through private portfolios, become politically relevant through balance sheet logic, and open up new areas of application through technological innovations. Those waiting for one big bang will overlook the crucial point: Systemic turning points are not heralded by decrees but by changing practices.

An Overview of the Vectors

Arguments against the concept – and why we remain convinced

However, there are also factors that argue against the remonetization of gold. The following structural objections deserve serious consideration:

• The cash flow argument: Gold generates no current income. As long as government bonds are considered risk-free, the institutional incentive remains limited. Counterargument: It is precisely this status that is eroding – see Vector III.

• The systemic risk argument: An erratic rise in the price of gold would destabilize the debt-based monetary system. Political resistance to this stems not from a conspiracy but from rational politics of interest. Counterargument: An orderly process like the Eurosystem model is in any case more attractive to policymakers than market chaos – the question is not if uncontrolled, but when controlled.

• The substitution argument: Gold could lose its collateral function to other assets, such as Bitcoin or tokenized commodities. Counterargument: Complementarity is more likely than substitution (see the Bitcoin discussion in Vector III).

What would have to happen for the remonetization thesis to fail? Three scenarios are conceivable:

• Significant debt reduction through real economic growth or fiscal consolidation

• Substantial geopolitical détente with the lifting of all sanctions and a return to multilateral cooperation

• A technological breakthrough in CBDCs that renders gold obsolete as an anchor of trust

Each of these scenarios is possible on its own. However, it is extremely unlikely that they would occur in combination. Remonetization would fail only if several secular trends were to reverse simultaneously.

The burden of proof has shifted

The real flaw in the current debate lies in what is considered normal. Over half a century of fiat regimes has clouded historical memory: The unbacked paper money system is now regarded as the norm, while gold is seen as a relic. Historically speaking, it is exactly the opposite. The past 54 years are the anomaly, and 5,000 years of monetary history are the proper frame of reference.

The burden of proof, therefore, does not lie with those who consider a gradual remonetization plausible. It lies with those who claim that a historically unique fiat regime will be able to function permanently without resorting to monetary anchors.

Back to the monetary future – this is also the title of the 20^th-anniversary edition of the In Gold We Trust report 2026. It is not a nostalgic throwback. It is the sober realization that the history of money is longer and more cyclical than a single political cycle. Gold is not returning because it romanticizes the present. It is returning because the present can no longer keep its promises.

The shadow gold price

Should gold return to the center of the monetary system, the question of price consequences inevitably arises. An exact valuation is, by nature, impossible, but analytical approximations at least give us an idea of possible orders of magnitude. The best-known concept is the so-called shadow gold price.

The shadow gold price refers to the theoretical gold price at which the base money supply would be fully backed by gold. In other words: The shadow gold price is the price level at which a return to a fully backed gold currency would be mathematically possible. We do not consider such 100% backing of M0, as is sometimes advocated, to be necessary; it would currently imply a gold price of USD 20,900 per ounce. During the era of the gold standard, the market forced central banks to maintain coverage ratios between one-third and one-half, which corresponds to a current gold price between USD 7,000 and USD 10,400 per ounce.

Let’s take it a step further and look at the global level. The international shadow gold price corresponds to the gold price that would result if the central bank gold reserves were to cover the money supplies of the leading currency areas – the US, the euro area, the UK, Switzerland, Japan, and China – weighted by their share of GDP. The result reveals the extent of monetary expansion: With 100% coverage of the broad money supply M2, the gold price would be just under USD 250,000; even at a moderate 25%, it would be over USD 60,000.

“Every single money or currency has gone to zero in history.”

The current monetary system is heading toward the same fate.

Since the U.S. ended the dollar’s link to gold in 1971, currencies have already lost about 99% of their value against gold. The remaining decline could happen much faster than the first 99%.

Governments usually describe inflation as rising prices. But that’s the wrong way to explain it.

Inflation begins when governments borrow beyond their means, run persistent deficits, and create more money. As each unit of currency loses purchasing power, it takes more of it to buy the same goods and services.

During the 1970s, the United Kingdom experienced several years of double-digit inflation.

Between 1974 and 1979, inflation averaged 15.7% a year and reached 24.2% in 1975. It was a clear example of how quickly purchasing power can erode once governments lose control of their finances.

The same pattern has appeared repeatedly over the centuries.

One of the earliest examples was the Roman denarius.

Around 180 AD, the coin contained almost 100% silver. By about 280 AD, its silver content had fallen to almost nothing. The denarius was no longer a silver coin but one made largely from base metals.

It later happened in France during the early 1700s, in the Weimar Republic in the 1920s, in Zimbabwe, and in Yugoslavia.

The effect becomes clearer when wealth is measured in gold rather than paper currency.

A typical house in the United States cost about $6,700 in 1926, when gold traded at just over $20 an ounce. That worked out to 327 ounces of gold.

A hundred years later, a similar house costs about $514,000. In dollar terms, the price has increased sharply. In gold, however, it has fallen to about 126 ounces.

The same comparison can be made with a cow.

Looking back about 5,000 years, the amount of gold needed to buy one has generally remained between half an ounce and one ounce. Unlike paper currencies, cows cannot be manufactured. They take time to raise and represent a tangible asset.

That is why measuring wealth in currencies that lose purchasing power can give a very different picture from measuring it in gold.

“We’re going to have two devastating events hitting us in the next few years. They have already started.”

The first to get hit is the purchasing power of paper currencies.

Next are financial assets. According to Egon, decades of debt expansion and money creation have inflated stocks, bonds, and property.

One measure of those valuations is the Buffett Indicator, which compares the value of the stock market with the size of the economy.

Today, the U.S. stock market is valued at more than twice the country’s annual GDP. According to the transcript, that level is unlikely to be sustained for very long.

Another way to view the market is by measuring stocks against gold.

In 1980, the Dow Jones Index and the gold price were both around 850, giving a ratio of one to one. By 2000, that ratio had climbed to about 45 as stocks outperformed gold over the previous two decades.

Since then, gold has outperformed the Dow, bringing the ratio down to around 12 today.

If the ratio returned to one, both the Dow Jones Index and the gold price could stand at 10,000. That would represent a decline of more than 90% in the Dow when measured against gold.

Large losses become much harder to recover from.

A portfolio that loses 90% of its value requires a 900% gain simply to return to where it started. After the decline between 1929 and 1932, the Dow Jones took twenty-five years to recover its previous peak.

Neither trend guarantees a particular outcome.

But if both continue to unfold, preserving purchasing power may become increasingly important in the years ahead.

Gold and silver have been the exceptions because they cannot be printed or manufactured. For that reason, they remain central to any discussion about long-term wealth preservation.

KEY INSIGHTS

00:00 – 02:25 | Why currencies eventually lose purchasing power

Why every paper currency has eventually failed, the end of the gold standard in 1971, and why inflation begins with the decline in the value of money.

02:26 – 03:21 | The long history of currency debasement

How the Roman denarius, together with examples from France, Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe and Yugoslavia, illustrates the recurring consequences of excessive debt and money creation.

03:22 – 06:28 | Measuring wealth in gold instead of paper currency

Why houses, currencies and even cattle tell a different story when wealth is measured in gold rather than paper money.

06:29 – 08:08 | Two disasters already underway

How continued currency debasement and decades of money creation have led to rising inflation and an asset bubble across stocks, bonds and property.

08:09 – 10:55 | Measuring stocks against gold

How the Buffett Indicator and the Dow-to-Gold Ratio suggest that U.S. equities have become historically expensive relative to gold, and why the ratio could continue falling.

10:56 – 13:15 | Wealth preservation in an era of declining purchasing power

Why recovering from large investment losses can take decades, and why the discussion concludes by focusing on preserving wealth through gold and silver.

At a glance, it appears that stocks have created the real wealth, while gold has simply kept pace with inflation.

Matthew Piepenburg argues that this conclusion depends on how wealth is measured.

Since the fourth quarter of 2021, the S&P 500 has gained roughly 60% when measured in U.S. dollars. Measure the same index in gold, however, and it has lost around 40%.

The result changes because the value of the dollar has changed. If the currency used to measure financial assets steadily loses purchasing power, returns expressed in that currency can tell a very different story from returns measured in gold.

The same question extends beyond stock markets. It also appears in the way central banks manage their reserves.

For decades, U.S. Treasuries served as the world’s primary reserve asset and the preferred form of collateral across the financial system.

Since 2014, central banks have steadily reduced their holdings of U.S. Treasuries while increasing their purchases of physical gold. The freezing of Russian reserves in 2022 accelerated that trend.

Many still hold substantial dollar reserves, but they are adding gold at a much faster pace than before.

Annual central bank buying now stands several times higher than it did before 2022, with countries such as China, Poland and Kazakhstan continuing to add to their reserves.

At the same time, foreign ownership of U.S. government debt has continued to fall.

Debt remains at the center of the story.

Global debt has continued to rise while interest rates remain far higher than they were for most of the past decade. Financing that debt has become increasingly expensive, placing growing pressure on public finances.

History suggests that governments carrying debt on this scale rarely rely on austerity or widespread defaults. More often, they respond with monetary expansion, allowing currencies to lose purchasing power over time.

That is the environment in which gold continues to attract long-term demand.

Unlike government debt, gold is no one's liability. It cannot be created through monetary policy and has served as trusted collateral across centuries of monetary change.

Short-term price movements will always attract attention, but the broader question remains the same: “As debt continues to grow, what happens to the purchasing power of the currencies used to service it?”

KEY INSIGHTS

00:00 – 03:19 | Looking beyond the gold price

Gold’s recent correction, long-term performance, and why measuring returns in gold can tell a different story than measuring them in dollars.

03:20 – 05:35 | Gold replaces paper collateral

The steady rise in central bank gold purchases and the declining role of U.S. Treasuries in global reserves.

05:36 – 06:57 | Debt changes the outlook for gold

Record government debt, the limits of higher interest rates, and the long-term effect of currency debasement.

06:58 – 08:59 | Gold’s place in the monetary system

Gold’s role as a store of purchasing power while debt and money creation continue to expand.

09:00 – 10:29 | Measuring wealth in real terms

Why gold offers a different perspective on wealth than paper currencies during periods of monetary change.

But gold has never moved in a straight line. Every major bull market has included periods where prices fell sharply before recovering.

Gold rose 65% during 2025, one of its strongest annual performances in decades. Over the past five years, it has gained 128%.

Seen in that context, the recent decline looks very different.

History points in the same direction.

During the inflationary bull market of the 1970s, gold experienced five corrections of more than 20%. Between 1974 and 1976, the price fell by roughly half before going on to rise sevenfold into its 1980 peak.

Those corrections were part of the bull market, not the end of it.

Short-term price movements often reflect changing expectations around interest rates and the U.S. dollar. The recent correction has coincided with a stronger dollar and higher real interest rates, both of which have historically weighed on gold prices.

Periods of higher real rates have also appeared near major peaks in equity markets. In 2000, rising real rates coincided with the collapse of the technology bubble.

Today’s stock market is again heavily concentrated in a small number of companies, raising questions about how long current valuations can be sustained.

Meanwhile, central banks continue adding gold to their reserves.

Although a handful of countries reportedly sold gold during the Iran conflict to raise liquidity, overall central bank demand remains intact. Gold holdings now exceed their holdings of U.S. Treasuries.

The broader backdrop has changed very little.

Government debt continues to grow, inflation remains persistent, and highly indebted governments have limited room to tolerate higher borrowing costs.

One way to view that imbalance is through the relationship between U.S. gold reserves and government debt.

During the Second World War, the value of U.S. gold reserves represented about 51% of the federal debt. By 1980, that figure had fallen to around 18%.

Today, it is approximately 2.8%.

If gold represented the same share of federal debt that it did in 1980, the implied price would be roughly $26,000 per ounce. Matching the Second World War level would imply around $75,000 per ounce.

The purpose of the comparison is not to predict a future gold price.

It illustrates how rapidly debt has expanded relative to the nation’s gold reserves.

The same pattern appears when comparing gold with global equity markets.

The value of all above-ground gold currently represents about 18% of the total global stock market capitalization.

Over the past 120 years, that figure has averaged closer to 40%.

Returning to that long-term average would imply a substantially higher gold price than today’s level.

Corrections are part of every long-term bull market.

What tends to matter more is whether the forces behind that market have changed.

Debt levels continue to rise across the world’s largest economies. Inflation has proven difficult to bring back to target, and governments carrying record debt burdens have limited options if borrowing costs remain elevated.

History shows that heavily indebted governments eventually choose lower interest rates and more money creation over allowing debt servicing costs to spiral higher.

That process may support asset prices in nominal terms, but it comes at the expense of the purchasing power of paper currencies.

The recent correction has changed the price of gold.

It has done little to change the conditions that have supported it for years.

KEY INSIGHTS

00:00 – 01:31 | Putting the 25% correction into perspective

Gold’s recent pullback, long-term performance, and how previous bull markets have experienced similar corrections.

01:32 – 02:38 | Why gold corrected

A stronger dollar, higher real interest rates, stock market concentration, and continued central bank buying.

02:39 – 04:20 | Gold versus government debt

How U.S. gold reserves compare with federal debt and what previous levels of debt backing imply.

04:21 – 05:06 | Gold versus global stock markets

Gold’s share of global equity market value compared with its long-term historical average.

05:07 – 05:37 | Corrections within secular bull markets

Historical drawdowns during the 1970s and why they did not end the long-term uptrend.

05:38 – 06:23 | Debt, money printing, and fiat currencies

Why heavily indebted governments resort to monetary expansion and what that means for paper currencies.

Industrial demand kept growing. More silver was being consumed than mined. Yet physical shortages never became severe enough to force a major repricing.

China may have been central to that flow of silver.

Large amounts of silver doré were shipped to China for refining before finding their way back into global markets.

The steady flow of metal helped keep physical silver available while allowing producers to hedge future output in financial markets.

But trade tensions between the United States and China may have marked a turning point.

After the United States imposed higher tariffs, China tightened restrictions on rare earth exports and related technologies. Silver was also added to the U.S. list of minerals considered important for defence and advanced manufacturing.

China now appears to be importing more silver while releasing less back into international markets.

Within weeks, lease rates in London’s silver market rose sharply, and silver prices began moving higher.

If more silver remains inside China, less metal is available to the rest of the world.

Silver supply depends on more than silver mines

More than half of global silver production comes as a by-product of copper and nickel mining. Those industries rely heavily on sulphuric acid during the refining process.

Disruptions to the supply of sulphuric acid can eventually reduce silver production, even if demand remains unchanged.

Supply chains have become more fragile in recent months.

The conflict involving Iran disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest trade routes. Around the same period, China suspended sulphuric acid exports.

Australian manufacturers reported supply shortages, while refiners warned that obtaining the chemicals needed for processing metals was becoming increasingly difficult.

If copper and nickel production slows, silver output is likely to decline as well because so much of it is produced alongside those metals.

Industrial demand continues to grow through electronics, solar panels, and defence applications. At the same time, precious metals are attracting renewed attention as concerns about debt, inflation, and currencies continue.

Gold has received most of that attention.

Silver has not.

Historically, silver has often followed gold, although with much larger price swings because its market is considerably smaller.

The market could now be influenced by two long-term trends. Physical supply may become tighter if China continues accumulating silver while mining output slows.

Monetary demand may also increase as investors look for assets that cannot be created through monetary expansion.

Neither trend guarantees higher prices.

If both continue to develop, the silver market could behave very differently from the way it has for much of the past decade.

KEY INSIGHTS

00:00 – 02:56 | How China kept silver prices under pressure

The long-standing role of China in refining silver, managing global supply, and influencing silver pricing.

02:57 – 05:35 | Why China’s silver policy changed

Trade tensions, critical mineral designation, and China’s growing silver imports reshape the global supply picture.

05:36 – 08:07 | A growing constraint on silver production

How sulphuric acid shortages and disruptions to copper and nickel refining could reduce future silver supply.

08:08 – 09:46 | Silver’s industrial and monetary role

Why silver serves both modern industry and as a monetary metal with a long history across Asia.

09:47 – 10:38 | Physical demand is tightening the market

Growing industrial demand, reduced Western liquidity, and China’s accumulation of silver.

10:39 – 11:00 | Why silver could move faster than gold

Silver’s smaller market, stronger price swings, and its role as an accessible monetary metal.

An election result. A central bank decision. A conflict in the Middle East. A shift in trade policy.

These developments attract attention because they are visible. They dominate headlines, move markets, and shape investor sentiment.

Yet some of the forces that shape history unfold over much longer periods.

Simon Hunt believes we may now be entering one of those periods.

His outlook is built around the Benner Cycle, a chart first published more than 150 years ago.

While many investors dismiss long-term cycle analysis, Hunt argues that the Benner Cycle has tracked major turning points with surprising accuracy.

The chart identifies 2026 as a peak and points toward 2032 as the end of a 100-year cycle that began during the depths of the Great Depression.

The years ahead are unlikely to follow a straight path.

Hunt expects a series of shorter cycles marked by recessions, inflationary periods, rallies, and booms before the cycle finally ends in a bust.

To understand why, he begins with geopolitics.

Recent discussions surrounding Iran have received considerable attention, particularly after repeated claims that a new agreement may be close. Iran has rejected those claims, but Hunt believes the larger story lies elsewhere.

He points to recent meetings involving Russia, China, and Iran as signs of a broader shift taking place across the world.

In his view, the world is moving from a unipolar system toward a multipolar one.

This transition remains in its early stages, but Hunt believes it will define much of the next six years.

In June, Iran announced the creation of a security belt stretching from the Strait of Hormuz through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and into the Red Sea. Hunt interprets this as a declaration that Iran and its allies intend to exert greater influence over oil flows leaving the Middle East.

Energy remains one of the most important inputs in the global economy. Changes in supply, transportation, and pricing eventually work their way through manufacturing, agriculture and consumer markets.

Against that backdrop, Hunt expects the current market correction to continue in the months ahead before giving way to a substantial relief rally. Using the S&P 500 as a guide, he believes equities could eventually climb toward 8,500.

At the same time, he expects recessionary conditions to develop in the United States and much of the rest of the world by the end of the year, with recession extending through much of 2027.

Financial markets and the real economy do not always move in the same direction at the same time. But the period after 2027 is where Hunt sees the greatest risks.

His view is that a renewed inflationary surge could mark the years between 2028 and 2032. Part of that expectation comes from fiscal and monetary policy, but he also points to rising food prices, fertilizer shortages, and weather-related disruptions.

Particular attention is given to the effects of a Super El Niño on Asian food production and the longer-term Gleissberg weather cycle.

Taken together, these factors could place additional pressure on global food supplies at a time when energy markets are already under strain.

Hunt compares the period ahead to the inflationary environment experienced between 1978 and 1982.

At the same time, the contest between a unipolar and multipolar world is expected to intensify.

Iran, in particular, could assume a far more prominent role in global affairs because of its influence over Middle Eastern energy routes.

For Hunt, these developments are not separate stories. They form part of the same transition.

Economic pressures, geopolitical shifts, inflation, and monetary policy are all unfolding within the final years of a century-long cycle.

This brings us to gold.

THE SECURITY THAT GOLD PROVIDES

Hunt argues that periods of weakness should be viewed as buying opportunities, not simply because of inflation, but because gold serves as a form of security during periods of political, monetary, and economic change.

If the U.S. dollar declines by 50% between 2028 and 2032, as he expects, then gold should reach at least $10,000 by 2032.

Whether that forecast proves correct remains to be seen.

What matters is the broader point. The next six years may not simply mark the end of another market cycle.

They may mark the end of a century-long era.

KEY INSIGHTS

00:00 – 00:46 | The final six years have begun

A 150-year-old cycle chart points to 2026 as a major peak and 2032 as the end of a 100-year cycle.

00:47 – 02:42 | Multipolarity is replacing unipolarity

The balance of power is moving away from a U.S.-led system toward a world increasingly shaped by China, Russia, Iran, and other regional powers.

02:43 – 04:03 | Recession comes before the next rally

A market correction and a global recession could unfold through 2027 before equities stage a significant recovery.

04:04 – 05:34 | Lower rates may come before money printing

Interest rates could fall first as governments refinance debt before policymakers turn back to monetary stimulus.

05:35 – 06:56 | Inflation returns between 2028 and 2032

Food shortages, higher energy prices, fertilizer constraints, and weather disruptions could drive a new inflationary cycle.

06:57 – 07:23 | The battle between two world orders

The years ahead may be defined by the struggle between the existing unipolar system and an emerging multipolar one.

07:24 – 07:32 | Gold protects against the final phase

Gold is presented as protection against inflation, currency weakness, and the economic instability expected in the years ahead.

Investors rarely welcome corrections.

When prices rise, confidence grows. But as prices fall (even within a long-term uptrend), doubt quickly returns.

Von Greyerz argues that is what’s happening in silver today.

Silver has gone up from $4 at the beginning of this century to as high as $120. Viewed against that move, the recent correction appears far less significant than many investors believe.

The chart below puts the move into perspective.

Von Greyerz argues that the current pullback is a normal correction following a powerful advance. He also believes investors waiting for confirmation may end up buying at much higher prices.

But the story extends beyond silver itself.

For years, investors have viewed rising precious metals prices as evidence that gold and silver are becoming more valuable.

Von Greyerz says the opposite.

Silver is not rising. It’s the purchasing power of paper currencies falling.

Every monetary era eventually reaches the same fate. Currencies lose value, but precious metals remain the same.

GOLD AS THE FOUNDATION

While silver may offer greater upside, Von Greyerz still favours a larger allocation to gold because of its role as long-term wealth preservation.

Perhaps the most revealing part of his argument involves valuation.

Consider all the gold ever mined in human history.

It’s only slightly higher than the combined value of the twelve largest publicly traded companies in the United States.

Von Greyerz mentions that this comparison shows how undervalued gold remains relative to financial assets.

The same pattern can be seen in central bank reserves.

It’s too close to the valuation of one tech company.

For Von Greyerz, these comparisons reveal a growing disconnect between monetary assets and financial assets.

Which brings us back to silver.

He often describes silver as “gold on steroids” because it has historically moved faster than gold during major precious metals bull markets.

If gold’s valuation gap eventually closes, he believes silver could outperform it significantly.

Whether that adjustment takes five years or ten years is impossible to know.

What Von Greyerz believes is that the current correction will be remembered as part of a much larger move to come.

KEY INSIGHTS

00:00 – 01:27 | Corrections are part of a bull market

Von Greyerz mentions that the recent pullback in gold and silver is a normal correction following an exponential move higher and does not change the long-term trend.

01:28 – 02:31 | Buy silver before the next move

The current correction offers investors another opportunity to accumulate silver. He also argues that silver’s rise reflects the continuing decline of paper currencies.

02:32 – 03:20 | Financial assets face major repricing

Von Greyerz warns that stocks, bonds, and property could lose between 75% and 95% of their value when measured against gold.

03:21 – 04:32 | Gold remains deeply undervalued

Comparing gold to the world’s largest corporations, he argues that precious metals remain inexpensive relative to financial assets and equity markets.

04:33 – 04:46 | Silver is gold on steroids

Silver has historically outperformed gold during major precious metals bull markets. Von Greyerz believes it could move two to three times faster than gold in the years ahead.

04:47 – End | Precious metals are the foundation of wealth preservation

Gold and silver should be viewed as the foundation of a wealth pyramid and stored securely with direct ownership and access.

Now, midway through that same year, having lost more than 25% from its January high of $5600, many are wondering if peak gold is behind us in the wake of just another broken asset bubble.

Such concerns are understandable, even expected – especially during a shakeout.

Between 1971 and 1980, for example, when gold climbed from $35 to $850, many who loved it in 1980 had been shaken out in 1975 when gold’s paper price plummeted midway through an historical bull run.

As for those defending gold, especially from the desks of precious metal enterprises, they can often seem like apologists at best or salesmen at worst.

This too is understandable. This too is expected.

Gold: So Many Viewpoints

Gold is understood in diverse and extreme ways because a diverse and extreme array of profiles come to it—from day traders and paper exchanges to commercial and central banks to long-term cynics of fiat currencies.

For many, gold is just another commodity allocation. For others, it’s merely an asset or trend to be traded agnostically (long or short) based upon the direction of sentiment and the signals (resistance or support) on their screens.

Gold: A Monetary Viewpoint

For a small (and dare I say, sophisticated) minority, however, gold is much more than just a tradable asset, typical commodity or momentum trade, long or short.

For certain investors, gold is a monetary metal whose paper price fluctuations, though at times frustrating, are of less concern because the historical (and longer-term) debasement of the very currencies which the world otherwise calls “money” is as obvious to them as a cavity to a dentist.

To such investors, gold is understood as real and honest money. As such, it always gets the last and tragic word over dishonest paper money.

But are these understandings correct? How can one understand gold’s future as Wall Street sells you AI while the big banks are stacking gold in a forced fire sale?

The Future of Money Determines the Future of Gold

The seemingly eternal debate, discussion, understanding and hence foreshadowing of where gold is heading (or not heading) depends entirely upon what one thinks of the future of well, money itself.

As in most things — from political debates and athletic contests to wars and even relationships —there are typically two opposing “camps” and narratives in simultaneous play.

And when it comes to gold bulls and bears, these two camps are ultimately divided upon their divergent faiths in the future of paper currencies in general, and the U.S. Dollar in particular.

The Immortal Dollar Camp – Too Big to Fail?

Those whose faith (or story) rests with a USD that can never die will understandably have little interest in a yield-less, anti-fiat “pet rock,” regardless of its recent highs or lows in paper pricing.

Despite the endless tricks behind the politicized Greenback, the Immortal Dollar Camp can see no scenario in which demand for this undeniably and “exorbitantly privileged” currency ever loses its dominance.

Notwithstanding the fall of prior hegemonies of prior currencies and empires (from the Roman, Iberian, Dutch, or British), the Immortal Dollar Camp believes this time (and this dollar) is uniquely different.

To them, the U.S. Dollar, with its “straw-sucking” demand from the Euro Dollar, derivative, petrodollar and global SWIFT exchanges, is simply too big to fail.

Furthermore, with the might and power of the Genuis and Clarity Acts behind the USD, the Immortal Dollar Camp has supreme confidence that the USD will regain its might by rebuilding a dollar-lead payment system on digital rails in which U.S. stablecoins, issued from corporations as diverse as Walmart, Circle Internet, Tether, Apple Pay or JP Morgan, will be loved, bought and absorbed by the world.

Just like the global oil market created a great petrodollar “sponge” for the Greenback, they want you to believe that stablecoins will reignite a similar demand. In this way, the GENIUS Act is, as Trump declared, “the new oil.”

Under this faith, the internet, smartphones, and a wave of stablecoin issuance will effectively replace the Fed’s hitherto role of printing USDs to buy USTs. Now, a global network of e-dollar issuers and e-dollar buyers will save the system.

Hmmm…

The Gold Camp Calling the Dollar’s Bluff?

A small minority of physical gold investors, now joined by a majority of global central bankers, the BIS and the entire BRICS+ coalition, would beg to differ with the Immortal Dollar Camp.

Like China, this camp was calling the dollar’s bluff long before the “debasement trade” made the 2025 headlines.

Since as early as 2014, the world began net-dumping USTs and net-buying physical gold, a process which moved from incremental…

… to exponential after the USA weaponized its dollar in 2022. Since that watershed moment, central bank gold purchasing has increased by 5X:

Today, central banks now hold more physical gold than USTs.

Why?

Because they saw the falling direction of paper money in general and the over-indebted USD in particular.

The international gold “camp” was effectively playing physical chess while the dollar struggled with monetary checkers.

The gold stacking which began in 2014 was a subtle starting shot in the race to redefine the idea of “money” in the 21^st century.

So, who will be the winner: The digital Greenback or the golden rock?

This, at least to me, is the ultimate question, and as such, one’s genuine and informed view on gold (bull or bear) will hinge upon one’s genuine view of which horse tires first.

Tracking the Race

• The S&P

For those backing the Immortal Dollar horse, one way to track its progress has less to do with the current gold price and more to do with doping the thoroughbred.

The Immortal Dollar Camp sees a stock market that never falters due to the Fed (and later, stablecoin) steroids behind its dollar-saving liquidity.

But I, and many others, only see a broken, insider, rigged dollar-based system and market trying to desperately inflate itself for one last lap before exiting the track.

The current S&P 500 is 70% led by 10 names, with 41 companies actually making money and the other 459 tickers flashing flat or negative.

Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $400B in cash, yet the street is telling you AI, and an admittedly pumped wave of tech IPOs, will save us all.

Time will tell…

• Inflation

Despite an openly misreported (and downplayed) official CPI, U.S. inflation is still running at the fastest pace in three years.

But the real measure of inflation is not that bogus scale from the Bureau of Labour Statistics; instead, inflation lies in the embarrassing decline in the dollar’s purchasing power.

Toward this end, the commodities market is telling us just how weak the dollar horse truly is.

The USD price of oil, copper and wheat, for example, has been ripping north for centuries, while the gold price for those same assets has remained steady to even steadily cheaper:

What this chart proves, rather than debates, is that goods aren’t getting more expensive, the dollar is just getting weaker.

• The End of the Paper Racket

Meanwhile, the decades-long scam of pretending paper gold was the same as physical gold has been unravelling right before our eyes since 2024.

For centuries, the bankers’ gold hustle was simple: They sold you unallocated gold—meaning no gold at all, just a paper claim to it. They then levered this paper scam to artificially repress the gold price.

In 2021, for example, the London market had about $640B in paper gold claims against $70B in actual gold.

This was a legalized Ponzi Scheme. If gold ever rose dramatically in price enough to create a run on physical rather than paper gold, the big banks, as well as the big exchanges, would get slaughtered.

This explains why an openly nervous BIS, the “mother bank” to all banks, suddenly passed the Basel III rules requiring banks to acquire more allocated/physical gold before the prices skyrocketed.

The BIS was seeing the longer-term direction of the golden hockey puck.

Since then, the London and New York exchanges have been playing all kinds of tricks to force the gold price down to allow the bigger players to acquire precious metals at a discount before the golden horse wins the race.

In other words, even the big banks know that gold will eventually beat the dollar in this historical shift toward real money.

This unprecedented (as well as undeniable) flow to physical metals further explains why the London and NY gold & silver exchanges have run out of the metals. The bigger banks, nations and players want delivery of real gold not unallocated paper.

In short, the physical market has taken over the paper tiger market.

Still Backing the Wrong Horse

The Immortal Dollar camp, however, is non-pulsed by such otherwise flashing signposts. They argue the USD will survive on more growth, more income and more consumer demand.

But here’s the rub: Growth (as everyone from David Hume, Sir Thomas Gresham and Ludwig von Mises reminds) is mathematically impossible at a 125% debt to GDP ratio.

Even Ray Dalio’s simple math concludes that when a nation annually spends $7T with only $5T in revenues, the endgame for its dollar is a foregone conclusion.

China, of course, sees the same thing Dalio sees. In fact, they’ve been years ahead of the curve.

While Western central and commercial banks were still leasing gold and granting tax advantages to holders of paper gold, China (having likely imported 14,000 tons of physical gold since 2015) was stacking and buying the real metal as U.S. bank vaults collected cobwebs for years.

Denial or Genius?

But the Immortal Dollar Camp remains calm despite each of these signposts.

Physical gold, they believe, will never be more trusted than the USD. Unfortunately, the world’s central bankers, the BIS and the BRICS+ coalition think otherwise.

But the Dollar Camp says the AI miracle will save us. In my own opinion, AI will more likely ruin us.

But if you believe AI, along with the GENIUS Act, will create rather than kill more jobs, and hence stimulate more growth, dollar demand, consumer spending and tax receipts, time will have to tell.

We, however, are of the view that an E-dollar doesn’t make a broken, unloved and distrusted dollar any less broken, unloved or distrusted.

Who Wins the Dollar v Gold Race? Ask China?

Whatever we think of China, we can’t just assume they’re stupid. (The greatest military minds have always warned against underestimating the “enemy.”)

China has been patiently stacking gold and devaluing their currency against it with steady determination as part of a much longer-term (and patient) strategy.

China once held over 1.3T in USTs, now they hold about half that.

Though not without their own problems, China sees an incrementally changing global trade and currency system, and have been slowly building for this new direction long before COVID, the Ukraine War or even the latest fiasco in Iran made the headlines:

Part of this new direction involves a trading and currency system collateralized and net-settled more in physical gold and less in USTs and USDs.

This new direction, corroborated by disparate yet powerful signals from the BIS in Switzerland to the gold exchange in Shanghai, all suggest that gold is becoming a far more central player in this new direction than a weaponized, debased and over-indebted dollar.

Similar foresight explains the long-term and patient strategy which many “gold bugs,” from Portland, Maine, to Bregenz, Austria, understand all too well.

So, despite recent price falls, will patience and longer-term conviction give gold investors much more reward in the years ahead?

Again: That all depends on the future of real money: Is it going to be led by digital dollars or gold ounces?

History, math and current signals are already providing the answer.

Trading vs. Investing

Such misunderstandings are nothing new, as the difference between precious metal trading and precious metal investing is nothing new.

Nor is there anything new about top-down misinformation and misdirection given to Main Street when it comes to understanding gold and silver.

Traders, both skilled and unskilled, tend to track near-term signals for immediate rates of return (long or short) while longer-term investors typically watch history, debt cycles and currency debasement with patient detachment and a steady eye toward wealth preservation.

Such patience has served the longer-term, wealth-preservation-focused investors with greater returns (and calm) through periods of headline flux and geopolitical gyrations.

Since 2000, gold has outperformed the S&P, and when compared against the major global paper currencies (down 94% since 2000), gold (up 1580% since 2000) has demonstrably outperformed fiat “money.”

Longer-term investors see this larger picture and trend.

They don’t book losses in pullbacks because they understand the greater direction of the precious metal ball in a debt-saturated and hence currency-debasement playing field.

Comfort in Historical Fundamentals

In short, the fundamentals of history, economics and hence currency debasement confirm a clear pattern by desperately broke(n) nations to inflate their way out of debt at the expense of their currencies.

This makes the longer, anti-fiat direction for gold and silver almost too obvious, even in times of inevitable price retracements in the metals.

Historical cycles and longer-term calm, however, are easily forgotten or ignored in times of crisis. Investors somehow think “this time is different,” or, even worse, they don’t think about history at all.

Patterns: From Crisis to Gold Highs

But for those looking for signals, as well as sanity confirmation, it’s worth remembering that in every prior geopolitical and/or oil crisis (the OPEC embargo of 73, the Iranian Revolution of 79, the Gulf War of 91, the 9-11 disaster of 2001 or, more recently, the Ukraine/Russia crisis of 2022) there are clear patterns eerily similar to the current crisis surrounding the Iranian “conflict.”

Specifically, we are living within a template by which a geopolitical crisis sends the oil price up, which is followed by a rise in “inflation expectations,” which in turn means central banks like the Fed can’t cut rates, and soon thereafter the market, rather than central bankers, sets the rates.

This explains why yields on the US 10Y Treasury Bond (the true cost of Uncle Sam’s hideous bar tab) have risen by 75 basis points despite no active rate hikes by a Fed which couldn’t afford rate hikes even if they wanted them.

In this same template, as yields rise, investors typically follow the street’s traditional (yet now grossly mistaken) view that a yielding bond (from a broke issuer) is still better than a yield-less bar of gold.

What typically follows is a herd-like move to bonds whose “positive” nominal yields are measured in increasingly debased currencies and negative real returns when measured against actual rather than mis-reported inflation.

The ironies do abound…

But what fifty years of crisis patterns have also told us—at least for those paying attention—is that gold tends to drop early in every crisis only to then recover at newer all-time-highs as the crisis plays out.

During the 1973 OPEC embargo, for example, gold would dip and then participate in an historical, 4-digit upside in the seven years that followed.

After a temporary retracement during the 1979 Iranian Revolution, gold rose by 90% in one year, and saw double-digit upside within weeks of the 1991 Gulf War.

We saw similar dip-to-high surges in gold following the 9-11 tragedy. And as for the 2022 fiasco in Ukraine, gold broke 2000 not long after the crisis grew from threat to now ongoing reality.

Patterns in Moving Averages

But for those who still feel that history is no guide to future rhyming patterns, let us give equal respect to some of the key technical signals for the metals.

In fact, these signals—most notably from the 200-day moving averages in gold and silver—are themselves just historical signals of a different flavor.

More importantly, they are indicators which signal a rare opportunity in a time of crisis.

Looking at both gold and silver, for example, each metal has fallen below its 200-day moving average.

This is a powerfully bullish rather than bearish signpost.

Silver Signals

The last time silver fell below this average was in April of 2025, just before the metal, then trading at $27, ripped north at historical multiples and new highs.

Prior to 2025, we saw similar bullish signals beneath silver’s 200-day line in 2020 (when silver was at $11) and in 2022 (when silver was at $17).

Gold Signals

Equally bullish technical signals are ringing from gold’s recent dip beneath its 200-day moving average.

The last times we saw gold below this line it was trading in the $1500-$1600 range (2022) or the $1800 range (autumn of 2023). Thereafter, gold went 100% north 12 months out.

From Pullback to Historical Set-Up

Taken together, these fundamental as well as technical signals combine within a current as well as historical context which makes the current pullback in the metals a near perfect set-up rather than break-up for gold and silver.

In fact, current conditions for the precious metals in 2026 are even more favorable than the prior patterns of the 1970’s discussed above.

In 1973, for example, U.S. public debt was in the $500B, not $39T, range. Today, interest expense alone on American IOUs is twice the size of total US public debt in 1973.

Think about that for a second. At debt this high and unsustainable, the debasement trade is no longer a meme; it’s a fat pitch.

The Structural Bid Few Understand

In the 1970’s, moreover, central banks around the world were selling gold. As of this writing, and despite recent forced gold sales out of Turkey and Saudi Arabia, central banks (from Poland to Asia) are net-buyers of gold.

In fact, since the USA weaponized the world reserve currency in 2022, central bank gold purchasing has increased by 5X.

These signals from the world’s central banks are screaming signposts of a structural bid in the metals which most retail investors (who were spooked out of the trade at lows after buying at tops) are tragically missing.

Even the commercial banks have understood the patterns for gold after an oil crisis, and their price targets for the metal remain nearly twice the current price levels.

Thus, whether drawing from historical patterns or from moving-day-average signals, the question going forward is simple: Do you trust King Dollar or a “pet rock”? Crowns of gold or crowns of paper?

Time will tell, and time is clearly on the side of precious metals.

At the beginning of June 2019, I was challenged with a wager on the gold price. The individual, who called me a “gold pumper”, wanted to bet $1 million on the gold price going below $1,000 before it reached the Maginot Line at $1,350.

Since the gold price was $1,325 when I received the challenge, the odds looked pretty good to me. Gold only needed to go up $25 for me to win $1 million, but down $325 for the challenger to cash in. Thus, a no-brainer really, especially since I was totally convinced that gold would break the Maginot Line soon.

I suggested that we both place $1 million in a vault in Zurich, held in escrow by a Swiss notary, and I also set out the detailed rules for the wager.

The challenger came back and wanted to deposit $1 million with his lawyer in the US instead. Obviously not acceptable to me, since, being Swiss, I would neither trust the US legal system, the other party’s lawyer, nor the US dollar.

To make a long story short, the challenger started to procrastinate, and then, as the price was rising, the challenger became nervous and pulled out because, as he said, Paul Tudor Jones was bullish on gold. So not much conviction there in his big bet! And then last Friday, gold broke above the $1,350 Maginot Line.

So I didn’t actually win $1 million in fiat money or physical gold, but morally I did, of course, and that felt just as good.

GOLD HATERS AND THEIR FALLACIOUS ARGUMENTS

People who hate gold obviously don’t understand its purpose or history as the only money that has survived throughout the ages. Also, I have found that many gold haters have lost money speculating on gold mining stocks and, therefore, are anti-gold.

The gold haters always use the same fallacious arguments, like you can’t eat gold. True, it is slightly harder to digest than paper money, which you can’t eat either. Gold haters, including lazy and tendentious journalists, also choose a price level that suits their argument. They take the gold price in 1980 at $850 and then argue what a poor investment it was as gold went to $250 in 1999.

The fact that gold went up 24x from $35 in 1971 to $850 in 1980 is totally ignored by the gold ignoramus. And then they picked the top in 2011 at $1,920 as an example of what a bad investment gold is today.

It happened again in early 2026, when skeptics pointed to gold falling from around $5,500 in January down to $4,200 in March as proof that gold is finished. Of course, gold has since recovered and has a long way to go on the upside.

BUY HIGH AND SELL LOW – A RECIPE FOR BECOMING POOR

It is, of course, true that if you buy at the top and get out at the bottom, you will lose money. And these investors who buy high and sell low will quickly run out of money.

I hear of people around me who didn’t buy physical gold in 2002 when I recommended it at $300. But when gold reached the front pages, many bought not far from the $1,920 top and then sold as it crashed to $1,300.

Many investors feel more comfortable buying with the crowd as well as selling with the same crowd and getting out at no profit or a loss.

Few realize that you must buy when the asset is undervalued and unloved and not on anybody’s radar. Then all you need is patience, and the market will look after you.

GOVERNMENTS UNDERWRITE THE GOLD PRICE

What most investors fail to understand is that governments are their best friend when it comes to gold. Because governments always underwrite the gold price by constantly printing money and expanding credit.

That is why all currencies have fallen 97-99% against gold in the last 100 years. Thus, there is only 1-3% left for paper money to lose all its value.

And we must remember that the next move down involves a 100% loss in value of currencies from today. This is what the world can expect in the next 5-7 years as the financial system fails and governments, in a desperate attempt to save the system, print unlimited amounts of money.

Remember that 2007-9 was a rehearsal. Nothing was solved at that time. The can was just temporarily kicked down the road with $10s of trillions of printed money, loans, and guarantees. When I first wrote this in 2019, global debt had already hit a record $250 trillion. Now, it’s at $353 trillion, and the global debt crisis has only intensified.

GOVERNMENTS CAN’T SERVICE THEIR DEBTS REGARDLESS OF RATES

Most governments can hardly service their debt, even with interest rates ranging from negative to over 4-5%.

Deficits and debts are continuing to grow globally. Only in the US, debt is now approaching $40 trillion ($36T). On average, US debt has doubled every 8 years since Reagan became President. There is every reason to believe that this trend will continue.

INTEREST RATES TO REACH 1970S / EARLY 80S LEVELS AT 15%+

With a crash in the bond market and high inflation, or hyperinflation, interest rates are likely to reach the teens by then, just like in the late 1970s and early 1980s. By that time, the Fed will have lost control of rates as market pressure will prevail with panic in bond markets globally.

With US debt projected to reach $46t by 2029 and interest rates at say 10%, total interest cost would be $4.6t. Tax revenues are projected at $5.2t by then. Thus, just interest costs alone would consume virtually all tax revenues. And so the vicious circle begins with falling tax revenues and rising costs, more deficits, corporate and bank defaults, debt levels exploding, and interest rates surging. With risk levels at extremes, any lender would demand extremely high returns.

HYPERINFLATION GUARANTEED

The above course of events is the perfect scenario for hyperinflation, which is virtually guaranteed. Paper money will reach its intrinsic value of zero, and gold will go up substantially in real terms and exponentially in inflationary terms.

This scenario is inevitable, and it is only a question of how long it takes to develop.

As usual, the world at large will believe that governments and central banks will again come to the rescue. Very few people understand that with $370t in global debt, plus another $2.5 quadrillion in unfunded liabilities and derivatives, the world is staring at total debts and liabilities of over $3 quadrillion, which will all default.

Printing worthless money or issuing crypto tokens will not make one iota of difference. An insoluble debt problem cannot be solved with more debt. If you add worthless printed money to a debt that is also worthless, you have the perfect concoction for a global disaster of colossal proportions.

MAGINOT LINE WAS JUST THE FIRST HURDLE ON A LONG JOURNEY

Remember that gold in most other currencies was way past this level in 2019. It’s only because the dollar is temporarily strong that gold in dollars has held up. But the dollar will soon start its journey to zero.

$1,350 is just the first obstacle that will be cleared. This journey will take us to gold price levels that few can imagine today, since these will be multiples of the current price.

But keep in mind that physical gold is not bought for speculation or short-term gains. No, gold is critical insurance and wealth preservation against a world economy that is rotten to the core. That is the reason why you must own physical gold.

VON GREYERZ – A LABOUR OF LOVE

I hear people who don’t understand gold sometimes saying that our views on the economy are linked to the fact that we assist people to preserve wealth in the form of physical gold and silver.

What most people don’t know is that when we created the safest system for acquiring and storing precious metals outside the banking system, it was for the purpose of our own private use and for a few wealthy investors that we advised. Several years later, we opened it up to outside investors due to demand.

Thus, what we created was not set up for commercial reasons but to protect our own wealth. That later developed into a passion to assist other investors in preserving wealth in the form of physical precious metals.

What makes our activities especially rewarding is that we deal with people who are not masters of the universe and think they know it all. People who buy gold for wealth preservation purposes are humble because they see the enormity of the problem in the world.

They are interesting, free-thinking individuals who can see what is happening and understand that it is essential to protect their assets by applying stringent wealth preservation criteria.

We are very privileged to meet these people, and we know that our collective thinking and planning with them will be critical in withstanding the economic and personal pressures in the coming years.

But what if the measuring stick itself is broken?

What if the real story of the last century has not been the rise of stocks, property or even gold, but the steady destruction of the currencies used to measure them?

Before discussing gold, inflation, debt or financial markets, it is worth stepping back and examining a much bigger picture.

The chart below may be one of the simplest—and most important—charts in finance.

Measured against gold, every major paper currency of the last century has lost between 97% and 99% of its purchasing power.

The German mark collapsed. The British pound steadily declined. The Japanese yen, the euro and even the U.S. dollar followed the same path.

Different countries. Different governments. Different economic systems.

Yet the outcome has always been remarkably similar.

As Voltaire observed nearly three centuries ago:

“Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value: zero.”

The final stage of every monetary era tends to follow a familiar pattern. Governments accumulate debts they cannot realistically repay. The printing press becomes the preferred solution. Confidence gradually erodes. Purchasing power disappears.

History offers many examples, but few are as dramatic as Weimar Germany.

Between 1919 and 1923, the price of gold in German marks exploded from roughly 100 marks to more than 100 trillion marks.

Gold itself did not change.

What changed was the currency.

The mark became progressively less valuable until it eventually lost all credibility as money.

Most people assume such collapses happen suddenly. In reality, they usually follow a different pattern.

Imagine a stadium being filled with water.

One drop falls in the first minute. The amount doubles every minute thereafter.

How long before the stadium is full?

Only fifty minutes.

Yet after forty-five minutes, the stadium is still just 7% full.

The overwhelming majority of the filling occurs in the final moments.

Debt growth, money creation and inflation often behave in exactly the same way. What appears manageable for years can rapidly become uncontrollable once exponential growth takes over.

According to Egon von Greyerz, the modern monetary system may now be approaching that final stage.

The turning point came in 1971.

When President Nixon closed the gold window, the dollar was severed from gold and the world entered a new era of unconstrained credit expansion.

Since 1971, gold has risen more than 130-fold in U.S. dollar terms.

Most investors see this chart and conclude that gold has become dramatically more valuable.

Von Greyerz argues the opposite.

Gold is not rising.

Paper money is falling.

That distinction is critical because it changes how investors think about wealth preservation.

If gold were truly becoming more valuable, its purchasing power should constantly increase.

Yet history suggests something very different.

For thousands of years, a cow has generally cost between half an ounce and one ounce of gold.

Empires rose and fell.

Wars were fought.

Currencies appeared and disappeared.

Yet gold continued to buy roughly the same amount of real-world goods.

Its purchasing power remained remarkably stable.

What changed was not gold.

What changed was the value of the currencies used to measure it.

This is why Von Greyerz describes gold not as an investment, but as money itself.

For over 5,000 years, gold has served as a store of value across civilizations, monetary systems and political regimes.

Paper currencies come and go.

Gold remains.

That is why the central question for investors may not be:

“How high will gold go?”

The more important question may be:

“How much purchasing power will paper assets lose?”

Von Greyerz believes the answer could be devastating.

He argues that investors who remain concentrated in stocks, bonds and other financial assets could eventually lose 90–95% of their wealth in real terms as the current monetary era comes to an end.

Whether that process takes five years or ten years is impossible to know.

But history suggests that monetary systems, like all cycles, eventually reach their conclusion.

And when they do, those holding assets with enduring purchasing power tend to survive the transition far better than those holding promises denominated in depreciating paper currencies.

KEY INSIGHTS

00:00 – 01:18 | We are at the end of a monetary era

Von Greyerz argues that the current debt-based monetary system is approaching its final stage after decades of money printing.

01:19 – 03:43 | Fiat currencies always die

History shows that every paper currency eventually returns to its intrinsic value: zero.

03:44 – 05:30 | Exponential collapse comes suddenly

Using the stadium analogy, he explains why monetary crises appear slow for years and then accelerate rapidly.

05:31 – 06:57 | Gold is not going up

Gold’s rising price reflects the declining value of paper currencies, not a change in gold itself.

06:58 – 08:25 | Money printing drives gold higher

The expansion of global money supply has closely mirrored the rise in gold since 1971.

08:26 – 10:28 | Gold preserves purchasing power

Using the “cow analogy,” he argues that gold has maintained its buying power for thousands of years.

10:29 – 11:45 | Most investors are asking the wrong question

Instead of asking how high gold will go, investors should ask how much purchasing power they risk losing.

11:46 – 12:44 | Gold and silver are wealth protection

Physical gold and silver are presented as insurance against the destruction of paper wealth.